Will Sam Bankman-Fried receive a presidential pardon before Jan 21, 2029?
🗂 Part of event: Who will Trump pardon? →💡 What the odds say
The market puts this at about a 39% chance — less likely than not.
No money — just record your call and see if you were right. Yes is at 39% right now.
Data from Kalshi’s public API, for informational purposes only. PredictPal is not affiliated with any platform and does not facilitate trading.
Discussion
Loading…
How it resolves
Settled by Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated US exchange, against the official source named in each contract (e.g. a government release or election certification), with an Outcome Review Committee as a backstop for disputes.
Resolution criteria
If Sam Bankman-Fried has been given a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve during Trump's second term and before Jan 21, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.
ⓘ A market settles under its own written rules, which can lag what looks decided in the news — so the price may not move to 100% the moment an outcome seems obvious.
View the official rules on Kalshi ↗