Will Donald Trump leave office before August 1, 2026?
🗂 Part of event: Donald Trump announces departure as President? (Excluding death) →💡 What the odds say
The market puts this at about a 1% chance — almost no chance.
No money — just record your call and see if you were right. Yes is at 1% right now.
Despite recent headlines about Secret Service leaks and Trump firing election commissioners, the market sees a 99% chance he stays in office, reflecting the absence of any credible mechanism for his departure before August 1, 2026.
📊 Base rate: Since 1900, only one U.S. president has resigned and three have died in office, giving a roughly 1% annual probability of early departure, so the 1% Yes odds for a six-month window are consistent with the historical base rate.
What's driving it
- • The market has held steady at 1% Yes for weeks, with no headline or event providing a plausible path to early departure (e.g., The New Republic, Jul 23, on Secret Service leaks did not implicate Trump directly).
- • Trump's firing of all FEC commissioners (Votebeat, Jul 10) and the ongoing Air Force One security discussions (ABC7, Jul 9) are being interpreted as routine political and security actions, not precursors to resignation or removal.
- • The USA Today report (Jul 11) on Trump's son raising questions about which Air Force One goes to the Trump library reinforces the narrative that Trump is planning for a post-presidency, not an early exit.
The case for YES
- • If the Secret Service agent leak (The New Republic, Jul 23) reveals a coordinated effort to undermine Trump, it could spark a crisis severe enough to prompt resignation.
- • Trump's firing of all FEC commissioners (Votebeat, Jul 10) might be seen as an abuse of power that triggers a 25th Amendment or impeachment process, though no such move has been announced.
- • The odd Air Force One questions (USA Today, Jul 11) could hint at family discussions about his departure, though no concrete evidence exists.
The case for NO
- • No credible impeachment or 25th Amendment proceedings have been initiated, and the market has not reacted to any of the recent headlines (e.g., Secret Service leaks, FEC firings) as threats to his tenure.
- • The Secret Service is still taking active security precautions for Trump (ABC7, Jul 9), indicating he remains president and is expected to continue.
- • Planning for a presidential library (USA Today, Jul 11) strongly suggests Trump and his team expect him to finish his term.
What to watch
- • If a major scandal emerges from the Secret Service leaks (The New Republic, Jul 23) with direct evidence against Trump, Yes odds could rise sharply.
- • If a new impeachment resolution is introduced in Congress, it would increase Yes probability, though none has been announced.
- • If Trump announces a medical or legal reason for resignation, the market would move to 100% Yes, but no such catalyst is currently visible.
AI-generated · grounded in recent news + odds · informational only, not advice. Verify on the source platform.
Data from Kalshi’s public API, for informational purposes only. PredictPal is not affiliated with any platform and does not facilitate trading.
Discussion
Loading…
How it resolves
Settled by Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated US exchange, against the official source named in each contract (e.g. a government release or election certification), with an Outcome Review Committee as a backstop for disputes.
Resolution criteria
If Donald Trump leaves office before August 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
ⓘ A market settles under its own written rules, which can lag what looks decided in the news — so the price may not move to 100% the moment an outcome seems obvious.
View the official rules on Kalshi ↗