Who will win the Nobel Peace Prize?

🗂 Part of event: 2026 Nobel Peace Prize winner →

3¢Yes

4% 3 pts all-time

Yes

3¢

97¢

💡 What the odds say

The market puts this at about a 3% chance — almost no chance.

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Across venues

· updated 49mPredictPal Consensus

6%blended Yes · 2 venuesHigh reliability

The same question trades on 2 venues. This blend is weighted by each venue’s market depth.

XO MarketThin

$5.1K vol7%

Kalshishown aboveCheapest Yes

$596K vol3%

Informational only · play-money venues count less in the blend. Tap a venue to compare.

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No money — just record your call and see if you were right. Yes is at 3% right now.

StatusOpen

ClosesDec 31, 2026 · 5mo

Total volume$596K

24h volume$128

Open interest$241K

Listed

Data from Kalshi’s public API, for informational purposes only. PredictPal is not affiliated with any platform and does not facilitate trading.

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How it resolves

Regulated exchangeSettled by Kalshi (CFTC-regulated)

Settled by Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated US exchange, against the official source named in each contract (e.g. a government release or election certification), with an Outcome Review Committee as a backstop for disputes.

Closes Dec 31, 2026 (5mo)

Resolution criteria

If Donald Trump wins the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

ⓘ A market settles under its own written rules, which can lag what looks decided in the news — so the price may not move to 100% the moment an outcome seems obvious.

View the official rules on Kalshi ↗