2026 Nobel Peace Prize winner

Yes ≈ 9% chance

✨ The market strongly expects UNRWA will not win the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize (93% No), reflecting the agency's political controversy and the absence of any recent headlines boosting its candidacy. The low 7% Yes odds are consistent with the historical rarity of UN agencies winning the prize.

Yes ≈ 3% chance

Yes ≈ 5% chance

✨ The ICC's 7% odds reflect a mix of a concrete Darfur breakthrough and severe headwinds from an internal sexual harassment scandal and Trump's hostile rhetoric, making a Nobel win unlikely despite a plausible case for international justice recognition.

Yes ≈ 2% chance

✨ Despite a flurry of recent CPJ statements condemning attacks on journalists worldwide, the market sees a 2% chance that the Committee to Protect Journalists wins the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize — reflecting the long odds for a press-freedom organization to break into a prize historically dominated by conflict-resolution and disarmament figures.

Yes ≈ 2% chance

Yes ≈ 10% chance

Yes ≈ 7% chance

Yes ≈ 7% chance

✨ Sam Altman's near-zero odds reflect a barrage of reputational damage from the Apple trade-secrets lawsuit and Elon Musk's public attacks, not a lack of peace-related work—making a Nobel win extremely unlikely in 2026.

Yes ≈ 1% chance

✨ The market is nearly certain Dario Amodei will not win the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize, reflecting the extreme unlikelihood of a tech CEO with no clear peace activism track record being chosen for a prize historically reserved for diplomats, humanitarians, and conflict-resolution figures.

Yes ≈ 1% chance

✨ The market is a near-certain 'No' because the Nobel Peace Prize is awarded to individuals or organizations for concrete peace achievements, not self-nominations—and the recent headlines only reinforce Trump's lack of a recognized track record. The real story is the market treating the odds as essentially zero despite Trump's self-promotion, because no Nobel committee has ever awarded the prize based on unilateral threats or war-starting actions.

Yes ≈ 4% chance

Yes ≈ 6% chance

✨ Emergency Response Rooms (ERRs) are a grassroots humanitarian network in war-torn Sudan, but their 29% odds reflect the Nobel committee's historical preference for established figures or organizations, despite growing recognition from bodies like the Right Livelihood Award.

Yes ≈ 28% chance

Yes ≈ 3% chance

Yes ≈ 3% chance

✨ Despite Francesca Albanese's high-profile activism and media presence around the Gaza conflict, the market assigns her a negligible 1% chance of winning the Nobel Peace Prize, reflecting the Nobel Committee's historical aversion to awarding polarizing figures embroiled in active geopolitical controversy.

Yes ≈ 4% chance

✨ The EU's bid for the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize is seen as a long shot at 1% odds, with recent headlines highlighting internal controversies and geopolitical tensions that undermine its peacemaking image, rather than any unifying achievement.

Yes ≈ 1% chance

✨ Despite Musk's technological influence, the 1% odds reflect a consensus that his combative public feuds and controversial associations make a Nobel Peace Prize win in 2026 virtually impossible.

Yes ≈ 3% chance

Yes ≈ 11% chance

✨ The market heavily discounts a Trump Nobel Peace Prize in 2026, reflecting that no clear peace breakthrough or nomination momentum exists, while ongoing U.S.-Iran tensions and domestic controversies further undermine his candidacy.

Yes ≈ 3% chance

✨ 市场极度看低Centre for Humanitarian Dialogue获奖可能，尽管其近期在奥斯陆论坛和阿曼高层会晤中高调亮相，但缺乏标志性突破成果，且诺贝尔奖更倾向授予一次性重大和平成就而非持续调解努力。

Yes ≈ 3% chance