Who will win Hart Memorial Trophy?
🗂 Part of event: NHL Hart Memorial Trophy →💡 What the odds say
The market puts this at about a 49% chance — a coin toss.
No money — just record your call and see if you were right. Yes is at 49% right now.
Despite a rocky 2025-26 season filled with trades, ejections, and locker-room drama, the market sees a 50-50 chance that Mikko Rantanen returns to elite Hart-caliber form, reflecting his immense talent versus off-ice instability.
📊 Base rate: Over the past decade, 90% of Hart Trophy winners have been forwards (9 of 10), and all but one played on a team that finished in the top 10 of the league standings.
What's driving it
- • A report that the Colorado Avalanche 'screwed over' Rantanen (Mshale, Jul 24) adds to narratives of team friction, potentially lowering confidence in his fit.
- • Rantanen's ejection for a nasty hit on Alex Romanov (ESPN, Jul 20) raises concerns about discipline and possible suspensions.
- • Stars forward Jason Robertson's contentment with a 1-year deal (Dallas News, Jul 22) suggests lingering contract uncertainty that could affect team chemistry and Rantanen's supporting cast.
- • Jordan Staal's comments about Rantanen's 'weird' time in Carolina (Yardbarker, Jul 20) reinforce perceptions of a turbulent recent career.
The case for YES
- • Rantanen is a former 55-goal scorer and already has a peak season (2022-23) that would be Hart-worthy, showing he can dominate.
- • Voters often reward players who overcome adversity; the negative headlines could become a narrative of resilience if he excels.
- • The Stars have a strong core and, if Rantanen finds chemistry, he could lead the league in points and drive team success.
The case for NO
- • His 2025-26 season was a 'wild ride' of inconsistency (Stars Thoughts, Jun 17), and Hart winners typically need a consistent, dominant year.
- • The locker-room issues in Colorado and Carolina (Mshale, Yardbarker) suggest he may struggle to be the focal point of a team with a stable leadership.
- • With Robertson on a one-year deal and other team uncertainties, the Stars may not contend for a top seed, which historically hurts Hart odds.
What to watch
- • Start of 2026-27 regular season (October 2026): A fast start with multiple point streaks would increase odds; early struggles or injuries would decrease.
- • Rantanen's contract situation resolution (if he signs a long-term extension before or early in the season): Positive news would likely increase odds by stabilizing his future; remaining unsigned could create distraction and decrease odds.
- • Trade deadline (early March 2027): If the Stars are out of contention and trade Rantanen, odds would drop sharply; if they acquire more talent to bolster his chances, odds could rise.
AI-generated · grounded in recent news + odds · informational only, not advice. Verify on the source platform.
Data from Kalshi’s public API, for informational purposes only. PredictPal is not affiliated with any platform and does not facilitate trading.
Discussion
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How it resolves
Settled by Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated US exchange, against the official source named in each contract (e.g. a government release or election certification), with an Outcome Review Committee as a backstop for disputes.
Resolution criteria
If Mikko Rantanen wins the NHL Hart Memorial Trophy in the 2026-27 NHL season, then the market resolves to Yes.
ⓘ A market settles under its own written rules, which can lag what looks decided in the news — so the price may not move to 100% the moment an outcome seems obvious.
View the official rules on Kalshi ↗Related markets
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