Will Jerome Powell leave Member of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System before Aug 1, 2026?
🗂 Part of event: Jerome Powell departure as Fed Governor announced? →💡 What the odds say
The market puts this at about a 1% chance — almost no chance.
No money — just record your call and see if you were right. Yes is at 1% right now.
Powell's near-0% resignation odds reflect that he has refused to step down despite Trump's threats, his temporary chair reappointment by the Board signals institutional backing, and no credible departure announcement has emerged as the deadline approaches.
📊 Base rate: Since the Federal Reserve was founded in 1913, only one Board governor has been formally removed before term expiry, and voluntary mid-term resignations under political pressure are exceedingly rare, giving a historical prior well below 10%.
What's driving it
- • Powell explicitly stated he plans to remain on the Fed board, citing ongoing legal actions against Trump administration moves (AP News, April 29).
- • The Board named Powell temporary Fed chair in May, with two governors dissenting, indicating internal division but also broad support for his continued role (Barron's, May 15).
- • Kevin Warsh was confirmed as Fed governor in May, which some interpret as clearing a path for a successor but does not force Powell out (CBS News, May 12).
- • Hassett's conditional prediction that Powell might leave if 'happy' with an inspector general report has produced no follow-through (The Hill, May 11).
The case for YES
- • Trump has threatened to fire Powell if he does not resign, and the president retains dismissal authority under the Federal Reserve Act (Reuters, April 15).
- • Hassett's comment suggests a potential exit trigger if an IG report gives Powell grounds to leave voluntarily (The Hill, May 11).
- • Legal challenges may fail before August 1, leaving Powell vulnerable to executive pressure or removal.
The case for NO
- • Powell has publicly committed to staying on the Board and cited litigation as a reason not to resign (AP News, April 29).
- • The Board's temporary chair reappointment signals institutional continuity, reducing the likelihood of a sudden departure (Barron's, May 15).
- • No formal resignation or removal announcement has appeared in the 60 days since the last relevant headline, and the deadline is only days away (as of July 26).
What to watch
- • Any new court ruling on the legality of Trump's removal authority would likely shift odds higher for Yes if pro-removal (direction: upward for No if ruling blocks removal).
- • Release of the inspector general's report on Powell could trigger a resignation if it contains critical findings, pushing Yes higher (direction: upward for Yes).
- • A public statement from Powell or a White House announcement about his status before August 1 would resolve uncertainty, likely confirming No (direction: downward for Yes).
AI-generated · grounded in recent news + odds · informational only, not advice. Verify on the source platform.
Data from Kalshi’s public API, for informational purposes only. PredictPal is not affiliated with any platform and does not facilitate trading.
Discussion
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How it resolves
Settled by Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated US exchange, against the official source named in each contract (e.g. a government release or election certification), with an Outcome Review Committee as a backstop for disputes.
Resolution criteria
If Jerome Powell has either officially announced their intention to leave as member of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System or has actually left as member of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System before Aug 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
ⓘ A market settles under its own written rules, which can lag what looks decided in the news — so the price may not move to 100% the moment an outcome seems obvious.
View the official rules on Kalshi ↗