US real GDP growth in 2030?

💡 What the odds say

Most likely: 2.6% to 3.0% at about a 17% chance — unlikely.

Prediction-market odds are usually well-calibrated — historically, outcomes priced near 70% happen about 70% of the time — but the crowd can still be wrong, and the price can lag the news.

Summary

The market assigns the highest probability (17%) to US real GDP growth falling between 2.6% and 3.0% in 2030, indicating a moderate expansion scenario as the most likely. However, there is a combined 31% probability for growth at or below 1.0%, reflecting substantial uncertainty and a notable downside risk. The spread of probabilities across various ranges suggests that traders see a wide range of possible outcomes with no single dominant forecast.