Banxico interest rate decision in June

💡 What the odds say

Most likely: Maintain the same rate at about a 98% chance — almost certain.

Prediction-market odds are usually well-calibrated — historically, outcomes priced near 70% happen about 70% of the time — but the crowd can still be wrong, and the price can lag the news.

Summary

The market heavily favors Banxico maintaining its current interest rate in June, with a 98% probability, while a rate cut is seen as a 3% possibility and an increase at 1%. This suggests traders expect the central bank to hold steady, likely due to persistent inflation concerns or a cautious approach to monetary policy. The low odds for a change indicate minimal market anticipation of a shift in the near term.