US real GDP growth in 2028?

13¢2.6% to 3.0%

11% 88 pts all-time

2.6% to 3.0%13%

1.6% to 2.0%12%

2.1% to 2.5%9%

0.0% or Below8%

0.1% to 0.5%8%

0.6% to 1.0%8%

💡 What the odds say

Most likely: 2.6% to 3.0% at about a 13% chance — very unlikely.

Prediction-market odds are usually well-calibrated — historically, outcomes priced near 70% happen about 70% of the time — but the crowd can still be wrong, and the price can lag the news.

Summary

The market predicts a divided outlook for US GDP growth in 2028, with the highest probability assigned to the 2.6%-3.0% range at 13%, closely followed by 1.6%-2.0% at 12% and 2.1%-2.5% at 9%. Significant uncertainty remains, as low-growth scenarios from 0.0% to 1.0% collectively account for 24% of odds, reflecting competing views on economic expansion.

How it resolves

Regulated exchangeSettled by Kalshi (CFTC-regulated)

Settled by Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated US exchange, against the official source named in each contract (e.g. a government release or election certification), with an Outcome Review Committee as a backstop for disputes.

Closes Feb 28, 2029 (2y)

Resolution criteria

2028

ⓘ A market settles under its own written rules, which can lag what looks decided in the news — so the price may not move to 100% the moment an outcome seems obvious.

View the official rules on Kalshi ↗

StatusOpen

ClosesFeb 28, 2029 · 2y

Total volume$42.7K

SourceKalshi

View on Kalshi ↗

Data from Kalshi’s public API, for informational purposes only. PredictionHub is not affiliated with any platform and does not facilitate trading.