Will BTC trimmed mean be above $72500.00 by 11:59 PM ET on Jul 31, 2026?
🗂 Part of event: How high will BTC get in July? →💡 What the odds say
The market puts this at about a 3% chance — almost no chance.
No money — just record your call and see if you were right. Yes is at 3% right now.
The market is pricing a near-zero chance of Bitcoin hitting $72,500 by month's end, reflecting a sharp disconnect from earlier bullish Fed signals and a reality of weak spot demand and cooling inflation that has kept BTC range-bound below $65K.
📊 Base rate: Bitcoin has historically posted monthly gains above 10% only about 30% of the time, and a move from current levels near $65K to $72,500 would require a roughly 11.5% rally in just five days, which is rare outside of major catalysts.
What's driving it
- • Cooling US producer inflation in June (Crypto Briefing, Jul 15) and Australia CPI dropping 0.7% (Crypto Briefing, Jun 23) have reduced the urgency for aggressive Fed rate cuts, removing a key bullish narrative for Bitcoin.
- • Bitcoin's recent rally to $64K was described as lacking spot demand (Yellow.com, Jun 21), suggesting the price move was not backed by genuine buying pressure, making a sustained surge to $72,500 unlikely.
- • Geopolitical risks, such as Trump's threat to resume bombing Iran (Crypto Briefing, Jun 17), introduce uncertainty that typically weighs on risk assets like Bitcoin, despite a temporary rally on ceasefire hopes.
- • The market is ignoring earlier speculative headlines about Fed signals possibly pushing Bitcoin to $100K (Memeburn, Jun 19), as no concrete policy shift has materialized to support such a move.
The case for YES
- • A sudden dovish pivot from the Fed, such as an emergency rate cut or explicit commitment to lower inflation targets, could trigger a rapid Bitcoin rally above $72,500.
- • A major geopolitical de-escalation, like a finalized Iran MOU (Crypto Briefing, Jun 17), could boost risk appetite and drive a short-squeeze past the target.
- • A large institutional purchase or positive regulatory news in the final days of July could create enough momentum to break the $72,500 barrier, though no such catalyst is currently visible.
The case for NO
- • With Bitcoin holding just above $65K after cooling inflation data (Crypto Briefing, Jul 15), the required 11.5% rally in five days is historically improbable without a major catalyst.
- • Weak spot demand during recent rallies (Yellow.com, Jun 21) indicates that any upward moves are fragile and likely to reverse, making a sustained push to $72,500 unlikely.
- • The absence of any scheduled Fed meeting or major economic data release in the final week of July removes the most common triggers for a sudden Bitcoin surge.
What to watch
- • July 28-29: Any unexpected Fed commentary or emergency statement could move odds sharply; dovish talk would boost Yes odds, while hawkish stance would reinforce No.
- • July 30: Release of US Q2 GDP data; a weaker-than-expected print could increase rate-cut bets and lift Yes odds, while strong growth would support No.
- • July 31: Final day of the market; any large Bitcoin whale movement or exchange inflow/outflow data could trigger a last-minute price swing, with direction uncertain.
AI-generated · grounded in recent news + odds · informational only, not advice. Verify on the source platform.
Data from Kalshi’s public API, for informational purposes only. PredictPal is not affiliated with any platform and does not facilitate trading.
Discussion
Loading…
How it resolves
Settled by Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated US exchange, against the official source named in each contract (e.g. a government release or election certification), with an Outcome Review Committee as a backstop for disputes.
Resolution criteria
If the price of BTC after issuance and through 11:59 PM ET on Jul 31, 2026 is ever above $ 72500.00, then the market resolves to Yes.
ⓘ A market settles under its own written rules, which can lag what looks decided in the news — so the price may not move to 100% the moment an outcome seems obvious.
View the official rules on Kalshi ↗Related markets
Which price will Bitcoin hit in 2026?
The field is overwhelmingly concentrated on Bitcoin reaching $65k and $75k in 2026, both at 99%, reflecting the current price near $64k and a strong bullish consensus. The single biggest recent shift is the surge in odds for $65k to near certainty as Bitcoin approached that level, confirmed by the July 20 headline 'Bitcoin price hits $65K wall'.
7 outcomes
ETH Up or Down - Daily
The market is pricing an 84% chance of an ETH daily up move, but the recent headlines paint a picture of extreme bearish sentiment and technical weakness, suggesting the odds may be overconfident in a short-term bounce.
Yes ≈ 94% chance
Which price will Bitcoin hit in July?
The market is effectively settled: with Bitcoin trading above $65,000 as of July 26 and only five days left in July, the 98% odds for $65,000 reflect a near-certain outcome rather than a speculative bet, leaving no room for the other two price levels.
3 outcomes
Which price will Solana hit in July?
The $70 target leads at 30%, but the field is far from decided; the single largest recent shift appears to be the mixed impact of a record stablecoin market cap and a $1.65M exploit on the same day (July 20), which may have widened the probability spread.
3 outcomes
What will be the price of Bitcoin at the end of 2026?
The field is heavily concentrated in the $60k–$90k range (81% combined), with the leading $60k–$75k bracket at 53% — a bet that Bitcoin's bear market bottoms and recovers modestly by year-end, but does not break out above $105k (only 6%). The biggest recent shift is the 53% leader absorbing share from the $75k–$90k and below-$60k bins, likely driven by the July 18 report of massive call spreads targeting $72,000 around the Fed meeting (CoinDesk, Jul 18) and the July 24 analysis suggesting the bear market may end before the four-year cycle predicts (Bitcoin Foundation, Jul 24).
5 outcomes
Will Bitcoin to cross $100,000 USD again in 2026?
Despite bullish predictions for a September turnaround, Bitcoin's price languishes near $63k, far from $100k, and a death cross in March has dampened hopes for a 2026 recovery. The market assigns only a 25% chance, reflecting skepticism that any near-term catalyst can fuel a 58% rally.
Yes ≈ 25% chance