Will Bitcoin be above $149999.99 by Dec 31, 2026 at 11:59PM ET?
🗂 Part of event: When will Bitcoin hit $150k? →💡 What the odds say
The market puts this at about a 3% chance — almost no chance.
No money — just record your call and see if you were right. Yes is at 3% right now.
The market sees a 96% chance Bitcoin stays below $150K by end of 2026, reflecting deep skepticism despite recent bullish technical signals that have only pushed prices toward $65K-$70K — a far cry from the target.
📊 Base rate: Bitcoin has never closed a year above $150K; its all-time high near $69K in November 2021 is roughly half the target, so a doubling from the prior peak within a single year is historically unprecedented.
What's driving it
- • The 24-hour Yes probability rose 1 point, likely due to bullish technical signals like the MACD crossover and a surge past $64K, as reported by CoinDesk and CryptoPotato on Jul 10.
- • Headlines on Jul 10 show Bitcoin ETF inflows ending a 10-day selloff (FXLeaders) and a breakout setup (FXStreet), but these moves only target $65K-$70K, not $150K, keeping odds extremely low.
- • No clear catalyst explains the 96% No odds beyond the sheer distance to $150K — headlines discuss whether the bottom is in or more pain is coming (Zprávy Kurzy.cz), not a rally to six figures.
The case for YES
- • A sustained Bitcoin ETF inflow cycle, as hinted by the end of a 10-day selloff (FXLeaders, Jul 10), could snowball into a parabolic rally if institutional demand accelerates.
- • The MACD bullish signal (CoinDesk, Jul 10) and breakout setup (FXStreet, Jul 10) might precede a larger move if macroeconomic conditions shift favorably, like a Fed pivot or dollar weakness.
- • If Bitcoin clears the $70K resistance zone mentioned in multiple Jul 10 analyses, psychological momentum and FOMO could drive a rapid climb toward $150K by year-end.
The case for NO
- • Bitcoin is currently trading near $64K-$70K (Jul 10 headlines), requiring a 114%+ gain in under six months to hit $150K — a pace never sustained in a single year.
- • The Jul 10 articles debate whether the bottom is in or more pain is coming (Zprávy Kurzy.cz), indicating uncertainty about even reaching prior highs, let alone doubling them.
- • Regulatory headwinds, potential rate hikes, or a broader crypto winter could cap prices far below $150K, as no headline suggests a catalyst for such extreme appreciation.
What to watch
- • Federal Reserve interest rate decision on Sep 16, 2026: a rate cut would likely boost Yes odds by making risk assets like Bitcoin more attractive; a hike would push No odds higher.
- • Bitcoin halving anniversary on Apr 11, 2028 is too distant, but any major ETF approval or rejection news in late 2026 could move odds — a new spot ETF approval would increase Yes probability.
- • US presidential election on Nov 3, 2026: a pro-crypto candidate win could lift Yes odds, while a crypto-skeptic win would reinforce No.
AI-generated · grounded in recent news + odds · informational only, not advice. Verify on the source platform.
Data from Kalshi’s public API, for informational purposes only. PredictPal is not affiliated with any platform and does not facilitate trading.
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How it resolves
Settled by Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated US exchange, against the official source named in each contract (e.g. a government release or election certification), with an Outcome Review Committee as a backstop for disputes.
Resolution criteria
If the price of Bitcoin is above || Count || by || Date || at || Time ||, then the market resolves to Yes.
ⓘ A market settles under its own written rules, which can lag what looks decided in the news — so the price may not move to 100% the moment an outcome seems obvious.
View the official rules on Kalshi ↗Related markets
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