Will the 22nd Amendment be repealed or reinterpreted to let Presidents run for a third term before Jan 1, 2029
🗂 Part of event: Will Trump be allowed to run for a 3rd term? →💡 What the odds say
The market puts this at about a 8% chance — very unlikely.
No money — just record your call and see if you were right. Yes is at 8% right now.
The 22nd Amendment's repeal or reinterpretation before 2029 is a long shot, with the 7% Yes odds reflecting speculative chatter around Trump's third-term ambitions rather than any concrete legislative or judicial momentum.
📊 Base rate: Since the 22nd Amendment's ratification in 1951, no serious attempt to repeal or reinterpret it has reached a floor vote in Congress or a Supreme Court ruling, making the historical base rate for such a change within a single presidential term effectively zero.
What's driving it
- • Media speculation about Trump's third-term options, such as the Newsweek article outlining four possible scenarios (Newsweek, Oct 29, 2025), keeps the idea in public discourse but does not reflect actual political action.
- • A real-money betting market showed odds over 10% for a third Trump term (lasvegasoptic.com, May 28, 2025), which may influence Kalshi traders but is not tied to legislative or judicial developments.
- • Legal scholars have publicly disputed the existence of a constitutional 'loophole' for a third term (FactCheck.org, Apr 3, 2025), reinforcing the No case and likely suppressing Yes odds.
- • The steep challenges facing any newly proposed constitutional amendment (National Constitution Center, Jan 30, 2025) underscore the high procedural bar, anchoring the 93% No probability.
The case for YES
- • If a Republican-controlled Congress and state legislatures, driven by Trump's influence, fast-track a repeal amendment before 2029, the Yes outcome could materialize despite the steep two-thirds requirement.
- • A Supreme Court ruling that the 22nd Amendment does not apply to non-consecutive terms or that a president can serve a third term under certain circumstances, as speculated in some legal theories, would trigger a Yes resolution.
- • A political crisis or national emergency could create pressure for a third term, leading to a reinterpretation by the courts or a rapid amendment process.
The case for NO
- • The 22nd Amendment has been a stable part of the Constitution for over 70 years, and no serious legislative effort to repeal it has gained traction in Congress, as evidenced by the lack of any such bill in recent headlines.
- • The Supreme Court has not signaled any willingness to reinterpret the amendment, and legal scholars widely agree that its text is clear in barring a third elected term (FactCheck.org, Apr 3, 2025).
- • The political will to repeal the amendment is extremely low, as it would require a two-thirds supermajority in both chambers and ratification by 38 states, a near-impossible task before 2029 given current polarization.
What to watch
- • If a member of Congress formally introduces a resolution to repeal the 22nd Amendment, it would likely increase Yes odds, as it would signal the start of a legislative process.
- • A Supreme Court case or petition seeking a ruling on the amendment's applicability to a third term would be a major catalyst, pushing Yes odds up if granted certiorari.
- • If Trump explicitly announces a 2028 run and frames it around a constitutional challenge, it could temporarily boost Yes odds, though the legal and political hurdles would remain daunting.
AI-generated · grounded in recent news + odds · informational only, not advice. Verify on the source platform.
Data from Kalshi’s public API, for informational purposes only. PredictPal is not affiliated with any platform and does not facilitate trading.
Discussion
Loading…
How it resolves
Settled by Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated US exchange, against the official source named in each contract (e.g. a government release or election certification), with an Outcome Review Committee as a backstop for disputes.
Resolution criteria
If the 22nd Amendment has been repealed by a subsequent Constitutional Amendment, or if the Supreme Court of the United States has ruled in an opinion or judgment that the 22nd Amendment permits individuals to be elected to the Presidency at least thrice under at least some circumstances, before Jan 1, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.
ⓘ A market settles under its own written rules, which can lag what looks decided in the news — so the price may not move to 100% the moment an outcome seems obvious.
View the official rules on Kalshi ↗