Iran full airspace closure by...?

Yes ≈ 0% chance

✨ Despite a dramatic escalation in Israel-Iran hostilities and US airstrikes on Iranian targets in late July, the deadline for a full airspace closure passed on July 15 without any such action, confirming that the market's gradual decline toward 0% reflected the absence of a qualifying closure.

Yes ≈ 0% chance

✨ Despite sustained US-Iran military strikes and heightened air defense alerts, the market decisively expects no full airspace closure by July 31, as past escalations have not triggered such a broad measure and airlines continue to adapt rather than halt.

Yes ≈ 10% chance

✨ The sharp drop in Yes odds over the past week reflects market belief that Iran's airspace closure is unlikely despite escalating US-Iran military strikes, because Iran has so far avoided a general commercial flight ban even as it activates air defenses and rejects cease-fire talks.

Yes ≈ 31% chance

Yes ≈ 0% chance

Yes ≈ 0% chance

Yes ≈ 23% chance

Yes ≈ 3% chance