Next round of US-Iran peace talks by...?

Yes ≈ 0% chance

Yes ≈ 0% chance

✨ The market is effectively resolved to No since the July 10 deadline passed without a qualifying senior-level meeting, despite the June talks in Switzerland that produced a roadmap but no follow-up round.

Yes ≈ 0% chance

✨ Despite a diplomatic roadmap agreed in June, ongoing U.S. military strikes on Iran (AP News, Jul 22) and the absence of any announced follow-up talks make a formal senior-level meeting by July 31 highly unlikely, keeping odds at 8%.

Yes ≈ 7% chance

✨ Despite a diplomatic breakthrough in June that produced a roadmap for a final deal, the market is pricing a 0% chance of a follow-up senior-level meeting by July 17 because the U.S. is simultaneously conducting sustained military strikes on Iran, making a formal in-person round within the window nearly impossible.

Yes ≈ 0% chance

✨ The odds of a US-Iran diplomatic meeting by August 31 dropped 6 points in 24 hours as military escalation (Operation Epic Fury) and regional tensions overshadowed positive signals like Iran releasing a US citizen and Trump's claim that Iran wants to meet. The market is pricing in that the conflict will prevent another senior-level round despite the June roadmap.

Yes ≈ 44% chance

Yes ≈ 28% chance

Yes ≈ 0% chance