Which leaders will leave office in 2026?

Yes ≈ 25% chance

Yes ≈ 15% chance

✨ Despite a catastrophic earthquake that killed over 5,000, Acting President Delcy Rodriguez is deepening her international engagement and executive authority, making an early departure unlikely.

Yes ≈ 18% chance

Yes ≈ 7% chance

Yes ≈ 1% chance

Yes ≈ 10% chance

Yes ≈ 6% chance

Yes ≈ 16% chance

✨ Despite the 83% No odds, the real story is that Díaz-Canel faces mounting external pressure from the EU and US, but internal party machinery shows no sign of a leadership change, making a departure before 2027 unlikely without a major crisis.

Yes ≈ 17% chance

Yes ≈ 9% chance

Yes ≈ 8% chance

Yes ≈ 9% chance

Yes ≈ 46% chance

Yes ≈ 99% chance

Yes ≈ 9% chance

Yes ≈ 1% chance

Yes ≈ 10% chance

✨ Despite Xi Jinping's recent active diplomacy suggesting stability, the market assigns a negligible 3% chance of his early departure, reflecting a lack of any credible catalyst or historical precedent for a voluntary exit before the next party congress.

Yes ≈ 4% chance

Yes ≈ 7% chance

✨ Putin's 88% No odds reflect a stable autocracy with no visible succession mechanism, but the Kazakh president's unprecedented call for a Ukraine war freeze signals growing external pressure that could theoretically trigger a leadership change, though no concrete exit path exists.

Yes ≈ 12% chance

✨ Takaichi is actively advancing nationalist policies and economic initiatives, signaling she is firmly in control and unlikely to step down soon, which explains the overwhelming No odds.

Yes ≈ 6% chance

Yes ≈ 6% chance

Yes ≈ 4% chance

Yes ≈ 3% chance

Yes ≈ 3% chance

✨ The market heavily discounts Lula leaving office early, but the real story is that the 8% Yes price reflects residual tail risk from health, legal, or political upheaval rather than any imminent trigger, given no recent headlines about resignation or removal.

Yes ≈ 6% chance

Yes ≈ 4% chance

Yes ≈ 7% chance

Yes ≈ 5% chance

✨ Macron's Syria visit signals a foreign-policy gamble that could either bolster his domestic standing or backfire, but the 8% Yes odds reflect no credible threat of early departure; the real story is the absence of any resignation or removal mechanism in the headlines, making the No bet a near-certainty barring a black-swan event.

Yes ≈ 12% chance

✨ Despite 11% odds of Ramaphosa leaving before 2027, recent headlines show him performing routine duties (commission extensions, foreign visits), suggesting business as usual rather than any imminent departure.

Yes ≈ 7% chance

✨ The race is nearly a toss-up because Netanyahu's international support from Trump and right-wing allies offsets the growing pressure from arrest calls and domestic media reform backlash, making his departure before 2027 highly uncertain.

Yes ≈ 47% chance

✨ The market heavily discounts a departure because recent diplomatic wins—US terrorism de-listing, chemical weapons voting rights reinstatement, and a pivot toward Kurdish governance—signal that al-Sharaa is consolidating international support, not stepping down.

Yes ≈ 5% chance