Will there be at least 4000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?

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Across venues

· updated 1hPredictPal Consensus

37%blended Yes · 2 venuesHigh reliability

The same question trades on 2 venues. This blend is weighted by each venue’s market depth.

The prediction markets collectively imply about a 37% chance that the U.S. will see at least 4000 measles cases in 2026. The slight difference between the two venues (35% vs. 39%) may reflect different trader audiences or liquidity levels.

PolymarketCheapest Yes

$191K vol35%

Kalshi

$244K vol39%

Informational only · play-money venues count less in the blend. Tap a venue to compare.

How each venue’s Yes has moved

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AI overview· Updated Jul 7, 2026

The market strongly favors 'No' at 77% despite a series of alarming headlines about measles outbreaks in the U.S. and abroad, suggesting traders believe the CDC case counter will stay well below 4,000, likely because past U.S. outbreaks have been contained quickly and the current ones remain localized.

📊 Base rate: In the U.S., annual measles cases have ranged from 55 to 1,282 over the past decade (2014–2025), with the highest year (2019) reaching 1,282, far below the 4,000 threshold.

What's driving it

• A February 3 NBC News report of a measles outbreak linked to a Florida university (NBC News, Feb 3) likely raised 'Yes' odds briefly, but the market has since settled at 24% as no large-scale spread has been reported.
• A February 5 Guardian article about calls to shut down a Texas ICE facility due to a measles outbreak (The Guardian, Feb 5) highlights a contained institutional outbreak, not a nationwide surge.
• A May 9 Star Tribune report that less than half of kindergartners in one small Minnesota city are vaccinated (Star Tribune, May 9) suggests localized vulnerability but has not translated into a large case count, reinforcing the 'No' view.
• International headlines about deadly outbreaks in Bangladesh, Mexico, and London (NBC News, Apr 2; Reuters, Feb 11; BBC, Feb 15) may create public concern but do not directly affect U.S. case numbers.

The case for YES

• The U.S. has already seen multiple outbreaks in 2026 (Florida university, Texas ICE facility, Minnesota), showing the virus is circulating and could accelerate if containment fails.
• Vaccination gaps in pockets like the Minnesota city with under 50% kindergarten coverage (Star Tribune, May 9) provide tinder for a larger outbreak if the virus reaches those communities.
• International outbreaks in Bangladesh, Mexico, and London (NBC News, Apr 2; Reuters, Feb 11; BBC, Feb 15) increase the risk of imported cases that could seed new U.S. clusters.

The case for NO

• Historical U.S. measles cases have never exceeded 1,282 in a year (2019), and the current outbreaks appear localized, with no evidence of nationwide spread reaching 4,000.
• The CDC counter has not reported a surge to thousands of cases despite months of headlines, suggesting containment measures are working.
• The market odds at 77% 'No' reflect trader confidence that even with multiple outbreaks, the total will stay well below the 4,000 threshold, as past outbreaks have been limited in scale.

What to watch

• A CDC weekly update showing a sharp jump in cases (e.g., above 500) would move odds toward 'Yes'.
• A new outbreak in a major city with low vaccination rates (e.g., New York or Los Angeles) reported in a headline would push odds toward 'Yes'.
• A statement from the CDC or HHS declaring a national measles emergency would likely increase 'Yes' odds.

Sources

🔗 nbcnews.com 🔗 startribune.com 🔗 reuters.com 🔗 bbc.com

AI-generated · grounded in recent news + odds · informational only, not advice. Verify on the source platform.

Consensus is a liquidity-weighted blend of each venue’s Yes probability (play-money venues count less). Informational only — PredictPal is not affiliated with any platform and does not facilitate trading.