The same question trades on 2 venues. This blend is weighted by each venue’s market depth.
The prediction markets collectively imply about 89% confidence that Marine Le Pen will be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election. The slight disagreement between Polymarket (89%) and Manifold (91%) likely reflects the difference between real-money and play-money trading.
Informational only · play-money venues count less in the blend. Tap a venue to compare.
How each venue’s Yes has moved
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Consensus is a liquidity-weighted blend of each venue’s Yes probability (play-money venues count less). Informational only — PredictPal is not affiliated with any platform and does not facilitate trading.