The same question trades on 2 venues — prices range 7%–13%. This blend is weighted by each venue’s market depth.
Across prediction markets, the collective chance of an Israel-Turkey military clash before 2027 is estimated at about 13%, with the play-money market (Manifold) showing a slightly lower 7% chance, possibly due to different user bases or risk preferences.
Informational only · play-money venues count less in the blend. Tap a venue to compare.
How each venue’s Yes has moved
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Consensus is a liquidity-weighted blend of each venue’s Yes probability (play-money venues count less). Informational only — PredictPal is not affiliated with any platform and does not facilitate trading.