Israel x Turkey military clash before 2027?
🗂 Part of event: Israel x Turkey military clash before 2027? →💡 What the odds say
The market puts this at about a 14% chance — very unlikely.
Across venues
· updated 2hPredictPal ConsensusThe same question trades on 2 venues — prices range 7%–13%. This blend is weighted by each venue’s market depth.
Across prediction markets, the collective chance of an Israel-Turkey military clash before 2027 is estimated at about 13%, with the play-money market (Manifold) showing a slightly lower 7% chance, possibly due to different user bases or risk preferences.
No money — just record your call and see if you were right. Yes is at 14% right now.
Data from Polymarket’s public API, for informational purposes only. PredictPal is not affiliated with any platform and does not facilitate trading.
Discussion
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How it resolves
Settled on-chain by UMA's optimistic oracle: once an outcome is clear, anyone can propose the result, which then enters a challenge window where it can be disputed with evidence before it finalizes.
⚖️ A proposed outcome can be disputed during a challenge window before it's final.
Resolution criteria
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of Israel and Turkey by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Isreali and Turkish military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
ⓘ A market settles under its own written rules, which can lag what looks decided in the news — so the price may not move to 100% the moment an outcome seems obvious.
View the official rules on Polymarket ↗Related markets
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Yes ≈ 26% chance