The same question trades on 2 venues — prices range 22%–49%. This blend is weighted by each venue’s market depth.
The trading venues collectively suggest about a 47% chance that Taylor Swift will release a new album in 2026, though the play-money market on Manifold shows a much lower estimate (22%) than the real-money market on Kalshi (49%), likely due to differences in trader seriousness or liquidity.
Informational only · play-money venues count less in the blend. Tap a venue to compare.
How each venue’s Yes has moved
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Consensus is a liquidity-weighted blend of each venue’s Yes probability (play-money venues count less). Informational only — PredictPal is not affiliated with any platform and does not facilitate trading.