Awards, entertainment, and pop-culture questions, aggregated across every venue.
447 markets · page 14 of 19
Yes ≈ 15% chance
Yes ≈ 34% chance
Yes ≈ 23% chance
Yes ≈ 33% chance
The market is pricing in a 65% chance based on the film's remarkable backstory and Cannes buzz, but the real test will come with its October release—the odds are high relative to the typical documentary's chances, reflecting the narrative's appeal rather than proven Academy reception.
Yes ≈ 65% chance
Yes ≈ 19% chance
Yes ≈ 8% chance
Despite Pedro Almodóvar's strong Oscar track record, the market's 11% confidence in 'Bitter Christmas' getting nominated suggests scepticism that the film, though well-reviewed, is too familiar and lacks the festival pedigree needed to break through a crowded field.
Yes ≈ 11% chance
Yes ≈ 37% chance
Yes ≈ 91% chance
Yes ≈ 8% chance
Yes ≈ 48% chance
Yes ≈ 20% chance
Yes ≈ 23% chance