Next General Election Conservative Leader - Boris Johnson
💡 What the odds say
The market puts this at about a 3% chance — almost no chance.
No money — just record your call and see if you were right. Yes is at 3% right now.
The market reflects that Boris Johnson is highly unlikely to be the Conservative leader at the next general election, given that Kemi Badenoch is already the party leader and the recent pattern of rapid leadership turnover makes a return to a scandal-tainted former leader improbable.
📊 Base rate: Since 1945, no Conservative prime minister who left the leadership has later returned to lead the party into a general election.
What's driving it
- • Kemi Badenoch is the current Conservative leader as of July 2026, making Johnson a former leader with no current position (Encyclopedia Britannica, Jul 13).
- • The party has seen six leaders in ten years, indicating instability but also a tendency to move forward rather than back to old figures (PBS, Jun 22).
- • A general election is not expected soon even with a new prime minister, so the next election may be far enough away that Johnson is not a contender (The Conversation, Jun 23).
- • Conservative election losses have cast doubt on Badenoch's confidence, but that suggests potential for a new challenger rather than a return of Johnson (Financial Times, May 9).
The case for YES
- • If the Conservatives suffer further electoral defeats, the party might turn to a familiar, charismatic figure like Johnson to try to regain support.
- • The rapid turnover of leaders (PBS, Jun 22) shows that no leader is secure, and a future crisis could open the door for a comeback.
- • Badenoch's confidence is already in doubt after election losses (Financial Times, May 9), which could trigger another leadership contest where Johnson might run.
The case for NO
- • Johnson left office in 2022 amid scandals and is unlikely to be seen as a credible future leader by the party or the electorate.
- • Kemi Badenoch is the current leader and has no immediate pressure to resign, despite losses (FT, May 9).
- • The pattern of recent Conservative leadership changes has been to choose newer faces, not return to former prime ministers (PBS, Jun 22).
What to watch
- • Next Conservative leadership election (date unknown) – if triggered, Johnson's candidacy would be a key event; direction: Yes if he wins.
- • Announcement of the next UK general election date – if called soon, the party will likely stick with Badenoch, making Johnson's return unlikely; direction: No.
- • Upcoming by-elections or local elections (e.g., 2027) – heavy Conservative losses could spark a challenge to Badenoch; direction: Yes.
AI-generated · grounded in recent news + odds · informational only, not advice. Verify on the source platform.
Data from Smarkets’s public API, for informational purposes only. PredictPal is not affiliated with any platform and does not facilitate trading.
Discussion
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How it resolves
Settled by the source platform according to the rules written into this specific market.
Resolution criteria
Will Boris Johnson be the Conservative party leader on the day of the next General Election
ⓘ A market settles under its own written rules, which can lag what looks decided in the news — so the price may not move to 100% the moment an outcome seems obvious.
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