Global Temperature — Where will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?
💡 What the odds say
Most likely: 2 at about a 55% chance — more likely than not.
The field is highly concentrated on rank 2 (64%) and rank 1 (30%), with a combined 94% probability, but the recent shift is a narrowing gap between 2 and 1 driven by mid-year temperature data that suggest 2026 may still challenge for the top spot despite a fading El Niño.
📊 Base rate: Since 1880, the hottest year on record has been set or tied in roughly 40% of decades, with the most recent record years (2016, 2020, 2024) clustering in the last decade, making a top-2 finish far more common than a record-breaker.
What's driving it
- • The May 2026 NOAA analysis (NOAA NCEI, May 11) showed global temperatures remaining elevated, supporting the view that 2026 will rank high but likely below the record year 2024.
- • Time Magazine's May 28 article 'Could 2026 Be the Hottest Year on Record?' (Time, May 28) amplified public and market attention on the possibility of a record, narrowing the gap between rank 1 and rank 2.
- • The WMO confirmation that 2025 was among the three hottest years (Reuters, Jan 13) set a high baseline, making a drop to rank 3 or lower unlikely and reinforcing the top-two concentration.
Why the front-runners lead
- • Rank 2 leads at 64% because the fading El Niño and shift to La Niña conditions in late 2025 typically suppress global temperatures, making a record year less likely than a near-record year.
- • Rank 1 at 30% is supported by the persistent warmth observed in early 2026 (NOAA, May 11), which could still push the year into record territory if the second half remains unusually hot.
- • The top two sum to 94%, reflecting a strong consensus that 2026 will be either the hottest or second-hottest year, with the historical clustering of recent records making rank 3 or lower a long shot.
Why it's still open
- • Rank 3 at 3% could overtake if a major volcanic eruption or rapid cooling event in the second half of 2026 drops global temperatures significantly, but no such event is currently forecast.
- • Rank 6 or Lower at 2% would require an unprecedented global cooling shock, such as a large volcanic aerosol injection or a sudden shift in ocean circulation, which has no clear catalyst in recent headlines.
- • The field is not truly open because the top two candidates account for 94% of probability, and the remaining candidates lack any recent headline-driven momentum to challenge them.
What to watch
- • The release of the June 2026 global temperature anomaly by NOAA or NASA in mid-July 2026 could shift odds toward rank 1 if it shows a new monthly record, or reinforce rank 2 if it shows a decline.
- • The WMO annual State of the Global Climate report, typically released in November, could provide a definitive mid-year assessment that either confirms rank 2 or opens the door for rank 1.
- • Any major volcanic eruption (e.g., a VEI 5+ event) before year-end would likely boost rank 3 or lower odds due to temporary cooling, but no such event is currently reported.
AI-generated · grounded in recent news + odds · informational only, not advice. Verify on the source platform.
Data from Smarkets’s public API, for informational purposes only. PredictPal is not affiliated with any platform and does not facilitate trading.
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How it resolves
Settled by the source platform according to the rules written into this specific market.
ⓘ A market settles under its own written rules, which can lag what looks decided in the news — so the price may not move to 100% the moment an outcome seems obvious.
View the official rules on Smarkets ↗Related markets
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