Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?
🗂 Part of event: Putin out as President of Russia by...? →💡 What the odds say
The market puts this at about a 9% chance — very unlikely.
No money — just record your call and see if you were right. Yes is at 9% right now.
Despite sporadic big bets and war-related stress, the market is heavily discounting any scenario where Putin leaves office by end of 2026, reflecting the absence of a credible removal mechanism or public signal.
📊 Base rate: In modern Russian history, no president has been removed early against their will; the only early departure was Yeltsin's voluntary resignation in 1999, giving a base rate of 0% for forced exits.
What's driving it
- • The lack of any credible incident or announcement of removal keeps Yes odds very low, as no recent headline suggests an imminent change (NBC News, Jul 1 notes big bets but no follow-through).
- • Putin's public rejection of peace talks and commitment to war goals (France 24, Jun 5) reinforces the perception of his stable control.
- • The slight decline in Yes probability over the past week (-1pt) suggests no new positive catalyst has emerged from the provided headlines.
The case for YES
- • War spending chaos could trigger a palace coup or internal revolt, as argued by a former central bank advisor (Fortune, Jun 27).
- • Large prediction-market bets on Putin's downfall (NBC News, Jul 1) may reflect insider knowledge of a planned removal or health crisis.
- • The resolution definition includes any temporary removal, so even a brief detention or health-related absence could resolve Yes.
The case for NO
- • Putin has shown no willingness to step down, explicitly ruling out negotiations and vowing to continue the war (France 24, Jun 5).
- • The Russian security apparatus remains loyal and effective at suppressing dissent, making a coup unlikely based on available headlines.
- • The market's 92% No probability reflects a broad consensus that no institutional or political mechanism exists to remove Putin before end of 2026.
What to watch
- • A quarterly report on Russian war spending (expected September 2026) could reveal fiscal chaos, fueling unrest and moving Yes (Fortune, Jun 27).
- • If Zelensky's open letter leads to a revived peace summit (BBC, Jun 5), a breakthrough could signal leadership change, moving Yes, though Putin's rejection currently dampens that.
AI-generated · grounded in recent news + odds · informational only, not advice. Verify on the source platform.
Data from Polymarket’s public API, for informational purposes only. PredictPal is not affiliated with any platform and does not facilitate trading.
Discussion
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How it resolves
Settled on-chain by UMA's optimistic oracle: once an outcome is clear, anyone can propose the result, which then enters a challenge window where it can be disputed with evidence before it finalizes.
⚖️ A proposed outcome can be disputed during a challenge window before it's final.
Resolution criteria
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Vladimir Putin ceases to be President of Russia for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Vladimir Putin's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. If the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Vladimir Putin and the government of Russia; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
ⓘ A market settles under its own written rules, which can lag what looks decided in the news — so the price may not move to 100% the moment an outcome seems obvious.
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