Will "The Odyssey" 2nd Weekend Box Office be between 80m and 86m?
🗂 Part of event: "The Odyssey" 2nd Weekend Box Office →💡 What the odds say
The market puts this at about a 1% chance — almost no chance.
No money — just record your call and see if you were right. Yes is at 1% right now.
The odds have cratered because Tuesday's $20M gross and tracking of $61M-$74M for the second weekend place the likely outcome well below the $80M-$86M range, making a Yes resolution highly improbable.
📊 Base rate: For films with opening weekends over $150M, second weekend drops typically range from 50-65%, which would put the second weekend below $80M.
What's driving it
- • Tuesday's actual gross of $20M (Deadline, Jul 21) and projections of a $61M-$74M second weekend (Facebook, Jul 22) directly contradict the $80M-$86M target, causing the Yes probability to drop 20 points in 24 hours.
- • Monday's $18M+ gross (Deadline, Jul 21) shows strong weekday holds but still implies a second weekend trajectory far below the required range.
The case for YES
- • If the second weekend significantly overperforms tracking due to exceptional word-of-mouth or a surprise surge, it could reach the $80M-$86M bracket.
- • The resolution uses The Numbers' final figures, which might differ from studio estimates and could be slightly higher than current projections.
- • The market's 'exactly between brackets' rule means that if the actual falls exactly on $80M or $86M, it resolves to the higher range, potentially including the target.
The case for NO
- • Tuesday's $20M gross and the $61M-$74M tracking (Facebook, Jul 22) indicate a second weekend roughly $10M-$20M below the lower bound of $80M.
- • Historical second weekend drops for Christopher Nolan's Dark Knight films (52-61%) suggest a similar trajectory, making $80M+ unlikely.
- • The 20-point drop in Yes probability reflects market confidence that the range is out of reach, with no clear catalyst to reverse the trend.
What to watch
- • Thursday and Friday daily box office reports (Jul 23-24) will provide early weekend indicators; if they exceed expectations, Yes odds could rise, but if they align with tracking, No odds will strengthen.
- • The final weekend actuals (Jul 24-26) reported on The Numbers will resolve the market; any deviation from tracking could move odds sharply in either direction.
AI-generated · grounded in recent news + odds · informational only, not advice. Verify on the source platform.
Data from Polymarket’s public API, for informational purposes only. PredictPal is not affiliated with any platform and does not facilitate trading.
Discussion
Loading…
How it resolves
Settled on-chain by UMA's optimistic oracle: once an outcome is clear, anyone can propose the result, which then enters a challenge window where it can be disputed with evidence before it finalizes.
⚖️ A proposed outcome can be disputed during a challenge window before it's final.
Resolution criteria
This market will resolve according to how much "The Odyssey" Weekend Box Office will gross domestically on its second weekend. The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the “Box Office” tab on this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day weekend (July 24 - July 26) are final (i.e., not studio estimates). If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc. If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures. If there is no final data available by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
ⓘ A market settles under its own written rules, which can lag what looks decided in the news — so the price may not move to 100% the moment an outcome seems obvious.
View the official rules on Polymarket ↗Related markets
Are people in the US getting dumber?
The 70% odds that Americans are getting dumber reflect a media-driven narrative linking AI tool use to cognitive decline, but the evidence is mostly anecdotal and lacks rigorous longitudinal data, making the market more a bet on cultural perception than on measurable intelligence.
Yes ≈ 70% chance
Highest box office-grossing movie in 2026 (US/Canada Domestic)
Despite The Odyssey's record-breaking $84M+ second weekend (Deadline, Jul 25), the market overwhelmingly favors Spider-Man: Brand New Day at 67%, suggesting a belief that franchise familiarity and pre-release hype will outweigh current box office surprises.
7 outcomes
Spider-Man: Brand New Day Tomatometer 92%+ on July 31, 2026.
The market expects Spider-Man: Brand New Day to fall short of a 92% Tomatometer score, with the 'Below 92%' option commanding 69% despite recent positive buzz from cast interviews suggesting a strong fan reception; the single biggest recent shift is a 1-point drop in the Yes (≥92%) probability over 24 hours, potentially reflecting skepticism after mixed reviews for other Marvel projects like 'The Punisher: One Last Kill' (Rotten Tomatoes, May 12).
2 outcomes
Highest grossing movie in 2026?
The market is essentially flat with both listed candidates at 0% odds, but the biggest recent shift is the record-breaking performance of Christopher Nolan’s ‘The Odyssey’ in late July, which is not a market candidate — creating a glaring mismatch between box office reality and trader sentiment.
2 outcomes
Emmys 2026: Outstanding variety special (live)
5 outcomes