Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?
🗂 Part of event: Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30? →💡 What the odds say
The market puts this at about a 28% chance — unlikely.
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No money — just record your call and see if you were right. Yes is at 28% right now.
Despite a slight uptick in the past week, the market heavily favors 'No' because recent headlines emphasize that restoring normal traffic through the Strait of Hormuz could take 12 months or more, and tanker crossings have hit a new low amid ongoing US-Iran tensions.
📊 Base rate: Historical disruptions in major chokepoints like the Strait of Hormuz typically last months to years; for example, the 2019-2020 tanker seizure crisis saw transit disruptions persist for over 12 months before a full recovery.
What's driving it
- • CNBC reported on July 24 that prediction markets indicate traffic may not return to normal for 12 months or more, reinforcing the 'No' outlook (CNBC, Jul 24).
- • Crypto Briefing noted on July 24 that Hormuz tanker crossings hit their lowest level since May, directly contradicting a near-term return to the 60-transit threshold (Crypto Briefing, Jul 24).
- • The 7-day odds rose 4 points in the last 24 hours and 6 points in the last week, likely reflecting short-term speculation or minor positive news, but the overall probability remains low at 27%.
The case for YES
- • The 7-day moving average of transit calls could spike above 60 if a temporary diplomatic de-escalation or a convoy system allows a surge of ships to pass, as seen in previous short-lived lulls.
- • The market resolves as soon as any date between now and September 30 shows a 7-day average of 60 or above, so a single week of improved traffic—even if unsustainable—would trigger a 'Yes'.
- • Recent headlines focus on long-term pessimism, but the market's 7-day uptick suggests some traders see a narrow window for a brief normalization before the deadline.
The case for NO
- • Iran's seizure of a Greek tanker on July 22 (Crypto Briefing, Jul 22) and continued US-Iran tensions make a sustained return to 60 daily transits within two months highly unlikely.
- • Multiple sources, including EnergyNow.com and Action Network, argue that restoring normal traffic faces structural hurdles such as insurance costs, naval patrols, and diplomatic standoffs (EnergyNow.com, Jul 24; Action Network, Jul 21).
- • The current 7-day moving average is well below 60, and with only about two months left until the deadline, a rapid recovery to that level would require an unprecedented and immediate reversal of the downward trend.
What to watch
- • Any new IMF Portwatch data release showing a significant uptick in transit calls (e.g., above 50) would push odds toward 'Yes', while continued low readings would reinforce 'No'.
- • A major diplomatic breakthrough or ceasefire agreement between the US and Iran before September 30 could sharply increase 'Yes' odds, while a new seizure or military escalation would drive odds toward 'No'.
- • The September 30 deadline itself acts as a catalyst: as the date approaches without a recovery, odds of 'No' are likely to rise further, barring a last-minute surge.
AI-generated · grounded in recent news + odds · informational only, not advice. Verify on the source platform.
Data from Polymarket’s public API, for informational purposes only. PredictPal is not affiliated with any platform and does not facilitate trading.
Discussion
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How it resolves
Settled on-chain by UMA's optimistic oracle: once an outcome is clear, anyone can propose the result, which then enters a challenge window where it can be disputed with evidence before it finalizes.
⚖️ A proposed outcome can be disputed during a challenge window before it's final.
Resolution criteria
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60 for any date between market creation and September 30, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered. This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for September 30, 2026, however, will not be considered. In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources. The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
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