Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 4?
🗂 Part of event: Mojtaba Khamenei public appearance by...? →💡 What the odds say
The market puts this at about a 0% chance — almost no chance.
No money — just record your call and see if you were right. Yes is at 0% right now.
Mojtaba Khamenei has been absent from all public view since his father's death in March 2026, and the July 4 deadline has passed with no authentic sighting, making a No outcome certain.
What's driving it
- • Headlines from July 9-14 confirm he was not seen at his father's funeral (Reuters, Jul 9), sparking internet mystery (CNN, Jul 11) and claims he is '90% gone' (NDTV, Jul 14).
- • The market's 0% Yes odds reflect the hard deadline having passed with no qualifying image or video released.
- • Crypto Briefing (Jul 14) explicitly notes he has remained unseen since March 2026, underscoring the lack of any public appearance.
The case for YES
- • A credible, timestamped photo or video taken and released before July 4 would have resolved Yes, but no such evidence has emerged.
- • If a delayed but authentic image from before the deadline were discovered after July 4, it would not count because the rules require release within the timeframe.
- • The strongest hypothetical scenario—a last-minute sighting—was eliminated when the deadline expired without any report.
The case for NO
- • The core case: no public sighting of Mojtaba Khamenei has been reported by any credible source since his father's death, and the July 4 deadline is now past.
- • Headlines from Reuters (Jul 9) and France 24 (Jul 10) directly link his absence to leadership uncertainty and a possible shift in his role, making a No resolution the only logical outcome.
- • Trump's claim (NDTV, Jul 14) that Khamenei is '90% gone' further suggests he is not publicly active, reinforcing the No result.
What to watch
- • No upcoming events can move the market because the July 4 deadline has already passed; any new sighting after that date does not qualify per the resolution criteria.
AI-generated · grounded in recent news + odds · informational only, not advice. Verify on the source platform.
Data from Polymarket’s public API, for informational purposes only. PredictPal is not affiliated with any platform and does not facilitate trading.
Discussion
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How it resolves
Settled on-chain by UMA's optimistic oracle: once an outcome is clear, anyone can propose the result, which then enters a challenge window where it can be disputed with evidence before it finalizes.
⚖️ A proposed outcome can be disputed during a challenge window before it's final.
Resolution criteria
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, is photographed or videotaped between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For this market to resolve to "Yes," the images or video must be taken and released within this market's timeframe. The images or video must be authentic. Archival material, previously recorded footage, reused images, digitally altered content, AI-generated media, staged reproductions, or any posthumous releases will not qualify. Digital appearances, including live broadcasts, will count for this market. The resolution source for this market will be the image/video of Mojtaba Khamenei, and a consensus of credible reporting as to whether it is real.
ⓘ A market settles under its own written rules, which can lag what looks decided in the news — so the price may not move to 100% the moment an outcome seems obvious.
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