Hantavirus vaccine in 2026?
🗂 Part of event: Hantavirus vaccine in 2026? →💡 What the odds say
The market puts this at about a 6% chance — very unlikely.
Across venues
· updated 1hPredictPal ConsensusThe same question trades on 2 venues. This blend is weighted by each venue’s market depth.
The prediction markets collectively imply about a 6% chance of a hantavirus
Informational only · play-money venues count less in the blend. Tap a venue to compare.
No money — just record your call and see if you were right. Yes is at 6% right now.
Data from Polymarket’s public API, for informational purposes only. PredictPal is not affiliated with any platform and does not facilitate trading.
Discussion
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How it resolves
Settled on-chain by UMA's optimistic oracle: once an outcome is clear, anyone can propose the result, which then enters a challenge window where it can be disputed with evidence before it finalizes.
⚖️ A proposed outcome can be disputed during a challenge window before it's final.
Resolution criteria
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any vaccine intended for humans and inoculating against Hantavirus (including Hantavirus Pulmonary Syndrome (HPS) or Hemorrhagic Fever with Renal Syndrome (HFRS)) receives full approval from the U.S. Food and Drug Administration between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the FDA, including its list of approved vaccines (https://www.fda.gov/vaccines-blood-biologics/vaccines/vaccines-licensed-use-united-states), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
ⓘ A market settles under its own written rules, which can lag what looks decided in the news — so the price may not move to 100% the moment an outcome seems obvious.
View the official rules on Polymarket ↗Related markets
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The market sees advanced embryo selection as still niche and ethically fraught, but recent coverage of genetic optimization startups and IVF's expanding role in family planning suggests the technology is gaining momentum, making the 100,000-conception threshold plausible if regulatory and adoption barriers fall.
Yes ≈ 26% chance