Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?
🗂 Part of event: Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31? →💡 What the odds say
The market puts this at about a 26% chance — unlikely.
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No money — just record your call and see if you were right. Yes is at 26% right now.
The odds have risen 9 points in the past week, but the market still heavily doubts a full enrichment halt by year-end, as recent headlines reveal deep disagreements on inspections and asset freezes, not just enrichment itself.
📊 Base rate: Since the 2002 revelation of Iran's nuclear program, no agreement has ever secured a complete and permanent halt to uranium enrichment, making a 'Yes' resolution historically unprecedented.
What's driving it
- • The 7-day +9pt move likely reflects optimism from the June 17-19 reports of a draft deal covering uranium dilution and oil sales (France 24, Jun 17; Time, Jun 19), but the 75% No odds show persistent skepticism.
- • The U.N. nuclear chief's June 24 visit to Iran was conditioned on a final deal first (NPR, Jun 24), indicating that even basic inspection access remains unresolved, which undermines confidence in a full enrichment halt.
- • The U.S. and Iran publicly dispute whether Tehran has agreed to nuclear inspections at all (NBC News, Jun 23; Al Jazeera, Jun 23), a prerequisite for any credible enrichment cessation.
The case for YES
- • A draft agreement reportedly includes Iran diluting its 60% enriched uranium stockpile (France 24, Jun 17), which could be a stepping stone to a full enrichment halt if the final deal is signed by December 31.
- • The market's resolution is lenient: any pledge to end enrichment for any duration, even as part of a temporary deal, counts as 'Yes' (market rules), lowering the bar compared to a permanent cessation.
- • The 7-day upward momentum (+9pts) suggests traders see a non-trivial chance that the ongoing negotiations (PBS, Jun 17) will yield a last-minute announcement before the deadline.
The case for NO
- • Iran has stated it will only allow nuclear inspections after a final deal (NPR, Jun 24), and the U.S. insists on inspections first (NBC News, Jun 23), creating a chicken-and-egg deadlock that makes a full enrichment halt by year-end unlikely.
- • Disagreements over frozen assets and the scope of sanctions relief (Al Jazeera, Jun 23) indicate that core economic issues remain unresolved, reducing the probability of a comprehensive agreement including an enrichment ban.
- • The 60-day test period described in the draft (Time, Jun 19) suggests any deal would phase in commitments, making a complete enrichment halt by December 31 improbable within that timeline.
What to watch
- • Any official announcement of a finalized U.S.-Iran nuclear deal before December 31 would sharply increase 'Yes' odds, as it would likely include an enrichment halt clause.
- • A breakdown in negotiations or a new Iranian enrichment milestone (e.g., reaching 90% purity) would push odds toward 'No', reinforcing the market's current skepticism.
- • The U.N. nuclear watchdog's next quarterly report on Iran, expected around November 2026, could reveal compliance or non-compliance with interim steps, moving odds accordingly.
AI-generated · grounded in recent news + odds · informational only, not advice. Verify on the source platform.
Data from Polymarket’s public API, for informational purposes only. PredictPal is not affiliated with any platform and does not facilitate trading.
Discussion
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How it resolves
Settled on-chain by UMA's optimistic oracle: once an outcome is clear, anyone can propose the result, which then enters a challenge window where it can be disputed with evidence before it finalizes.
⚖️ A proposed outcome can be disputed during a challenge window before it's final.
Resolution criteria
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to end all enrichment of uranium by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel. Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect. An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count. An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal. Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
ⓘ A market settles under its own written rules, which can lag what looks decided in the news — so the price may not move to 100% the moment an outcome seems obvious.
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