Iran leadership change by December 31?
🗂 Part of event: Iran leadership change by...? →💡 What the odds say
The market puts this at about a 23% chance — unlikely.
No money — just record your call and see if you were right. Yes is at 23% right now.
The market heavily discounts a leadership change despite a dramatic external shock (Khamenei's death in February), reflecting deep skepticism that the Islamic Republic's succession mechanisms or internal politics will produce a de facto change in Mojtaba Khamenei's position by year-end.
📊 Base rate: Since the 1979 revolution, Iran has had only two Supreme Leaders, and no Supreme Leader has been removed from power or resigned while in office, giving a historical base rate near 0% for such an event in any given year.
What's driving it
- • The 24% Yes price is likely anchored by the reported death of the previous Supreme Leader in February 2026 (Crypto Briefing, Jul 24), which created a window for a new leader but has not yet resulted in Mojtaba Khamenei losing his position.
- • The 4-point drop in the last 24 hours and 2-point drop over 7 days suggest fading optimism or new information that a change is unlikely, possibly reflecting analysis that Iran's system resists change (The New Arab, Jul 23) or that external regime-change efforts are quagmires (AFR, Jul 20).
- • Reports of internal divisions and demands for change after Khamenei's death (The Guardian, Jul 7) provide a counter-narrative that keeps the Yes probability above zero, but the market appears to weigh institutional inertia more heavily.
The case for YES
- • Mojtaba Khamenei could be removed or resign if internal power struggles intensify, as suggested by reports of divisions among mourners and demands for change (The Guardian, Jul 7).
- • External pressure from the US or Israel, including reported regime-change plans (The New York Times, Jul 13) and secret operations to cultivate alternatives like Ahmadinejad (The New York Times, Jul 13), could force Mojtaba Khamenei out or lead to his detention.
- • The precedent of the previous Supreme Leader's death in a military strike (Crypto Briefing, Jul 24) shows that external shocks can abruptly alter leadership, and a similar event could remove Mojtaba Khamenei before year-end.
The case for NO
- • Iran's political system is designed for continuity, and the new Supreme Leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, is likely entrenched with support from key power centers, making removal or resignation highly improbable (The New Arab, Jul 23).
- • Past US attempts at regime change in Iran have failed, and the current odds reflect skepticism that external efforts will succeed (AFR, Jul 20).
- • No clear catalyst for a leadership change is imminent, and the market's downward trend indicates that traders see the window for change closing as the year progresses.
What to watch
- • Any official announcement from Iran's government or state media about Mojtaba Khamenei's status or a leadership transition would sharply move the market toward Yes.
- • A major protest movement or internal coup attempt reported by credible outlets (e.g., The Guardian, Jul 7) could increase Yes probability by signaling instability.
- • New US or Israeli military action or diplomatic moves explicitly targeting Iran's leadership (The New York Times, Jul 13) would likely push odds higher, while lack of such action would reinforce No.
AI-generated · grounded in recent news + odds · informational only, not advice. Verify on the source platform.
Data from Polymarket’s public API, for informational purposes only. PredictPal is not affiliated with any platform and does not facilitate trading.
Discussion
Loading…
How it resolves
Settled on-chain by UMA's optimistic oracle: once an outcome is clear, anyone can propose the result, which then enters a challenge window where it can be disputed with evidence before it finalizes.
⚖️ A proposed outcome can be disputed during a challenge window before it's final.
Resolution criteria
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe. An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
ⓘ A market settles under its own written rules, which can lag what looks decided in the news — so the price may not move to 100% the moment an outcome seems obvious.
View the official rules on Polymarket ↗Related markets
Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
The field is virtually nonexistent: only two candidates register at 1% each, and no one has broken 5%, making this the most open Democratic nomination race in modern history. The single biggest recent shift is the DNC's decision to put South Carolina first in the 2028 primary calendar (Axios, Jul 25), which could reshape candidate strategies and favor a different type of contender.
2 outcomes
Next General Election - Most Seats
The field is moderately concentrated with Labour leading at 36%, but Reform UK and Conservative are close; the biggest recent shift is Reform UK overtaking the Conservatives for second place, as seen in the stated odds, though no headline directly explains this.
9 outcomes
Will Trump announce he is running for President in the 2028 election?
Yes ≈ 64% chance
Republican Presidential Nominee 2028
The Republican nomination field is exceptionally fragmented, with no candidate above 5% and the top three sum to just 1% — a sign that the race is truly wide open and still in its earliest jockeying phase, despite a recent poll placing Senator JD Vance near the top of a generic primary ballot (USA Today, Jul 23).
2 outcomes
Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
Despite Newsom's commanding lead, the field is far from settled: the 20% 'Other' share and AOC/Ossoff's recent gains per Action Network (Jul 8) suggest a pool of anti-Newsom sentiment waiting for a viable alternative.
8 outcomes