Will Elon Musk get full custody of the St. Clair child?

🗂 Part of event: Will Elon Musk get full custody of the St. Clair child? →

6¢Yes

6% 0 pts all-time

Yes

6¢

94¢

💡 What the odds say

The market puts this at about a 6% chance — very unlikely.

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No money — just record your call and see if you were right. Yes is at 6% right now.

StatusOpen

ClosesDec 31, 2026 · 5mo

Total volume$9.1K

Liquidity

Data from Polymarket’s public API, for informational purposes only. PredictPal is not affiliated with any platform and does not facilitate trading.

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How it resolves

Optimistic oracleSettled by UMA's optimistic oracle

Settled on-chain by UMA's optimistic oracle: once an outcome is clear, anyone can propose the result, which then enters a challenge window where it can be disputed with evidence before it finalizes.

⚖️ A proposed outcome can be disputed during a challenge window before it's final.

Closes Dec 31, 2026 (5mo)

Resolution criteria

On January 12, Elon Musk announced he would be filing for full custody of the child he shares with Ashley St. Clair. (see: https://www.eonline.com/news/1427282/elon-musk-filing-for-full-custody-of-son-with-ashley-st-clair) This market will resolve to "Yes" if Elon Musk is awarded sole legal custody, or primary residential/physical custody of his son Romulus in the form of a final order by any U.S. court by December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Temporary custody orders or interim arrangements will not qualify this market towards a "Yes" resolution unless they become final orders by the stated market deadline. This market will resolve immediately to "No" if all relevant court proceedings permanently cease, or are dropped by either party. This market will resolve based on announcements from Elon Musk, Ashley St. Clair, their official legal or social media representatives, or a consensus of credible reporting.

ⓘ A market settles under its own written rules, which can lag what looks decided in the news — so the price may not move to 100% the moment an outcome seems obvious.

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