Will Frank Ocean release an album in 2026?

🗂 Part of event: Which artists will release new albums in 2026? →

15¢Yes

15% 15 pts all-time

Yes

15¢

85¢

💡 What the odds say

The market puts this at about a 15% chance — unlikely.

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Across venues

· updated 4hPredictPal Consensus

14%blended Yes · 2 venuesHigh reliability

The same question trades on 2 venues. This blend is weighted by each venue’s market depth.

Kalshi

$7.5K vol14%

Polymarketshown above

$4.8K vol15%

Informational only · play-money venues count less in the blend. Tap a venue to compare.

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No money — just record your call and see if you were right. Yes is at 15% right now.

StatusOpen

ClosesDec 31, 2026 · 5mo

Total volume$4.8K

Liquidity

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How it resolves

Optimistic oracleSettled by UMA's optimistic oracle

Settled on-chain by UMA's optimistic oracle: once an outcome is clear, anyone can propose the result, which then enters a challenge window where it can be disputed with evidence before it finalizes.

⚖️ A proposed outcome can be disputed during a challenge window before it's final.

Closes Dec 31, 2026 (5mo)

Resolution criteria

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed artist officially releases a new album between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM PT (Los Angeles time). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Officially released means that a newly released album is officially available for download or streaming (not including recordings of live events) by the resolution date. Album releases including non-original tracks such as live-versions, re-releases, deluxe editions, compilations, or greatest hits albums, or similar non original or altered versions of previously released songs will not count, unless they contain at least 50% tracks that have never been officially released in any format prior to the album's release. The primary resolution sources will be official streaming and download platforms. In cases of ambiguity over how a song/album is labeled, the listed resolution sources will be consulted in the following order of precedence: Spotify, Apple Music, YouTube Music, and Deezer.

ⓘ A market settles under its own written rules, which can lag what looks decided in the news — so the price may not move to 100% the moment an outcome seems obvious.

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