In the eventuality of a nuclear weapon being used, which country is most likely to detonate it first?
💡 What the odds say
Most likely: 🇮🇱 Israel at about a 25% chance.
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How it resolves
Resolved by whoever created the market, at their discretion per the question's description. It's play-money (Mana) and not tied to an official source — treat it as a community forecast.
Resolution criteria
First nuclear weapon detonate: which country is responsible for it Nuclear tests don't count, only actual weapon used for war or strategic purpose connecting to war. Update 2025-05-20 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator confirmed that a nuclear detonation under a 'last warning' doctrine would count. This includes scenarios such as: A single nuclear strike Intended as a communication strategy or to show resolve In response to an enemy threatening vital interests, even if the threat is through conventional means.
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