Will Donald Trump's birthday become a U.S. federal holiday?
💡 What the odds say
The market puts this at about a 5% chance — very unlikely.
Across venues
· updated 5hPredictPal ConsensusThe same question trades on 2 venues. This blend is weighted by each venue’s market depth.
Across prediction markets, the collective chance that this law will
Informational only · play-money venues count less in the blend. Tap a venue to compare.
No money — just record your call and see if you were right. Yes is at 5% right now.
Data from Manifold’s public API, for informational purposes only. PredictPal is not affiliated with any platform and does not facilitate trading.
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How it resolves
Resolved by whoever created the market, at their discretion per the question's description. It's play-money (Mana) and not tied to an official source — treat it as a community forecast.
ⓘ A market settles under its own written rules, which can lag what looks decided in the news — so the price may not move to 100% the moment an outcome seems obvious.
View the official rules on Manifold ↗Related markets
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