Conditional on Trump doing the following things, will Trump be impeached in the House and convicted by the Senate?
💡 What the odds say
Most likely: Orders nuclear strike on domestic soil at about a 62% chance — more likely than not.
Data from Manifold’s public API, for informational purposes only. PredictPal is not affiliated with any platform and does not facilitate trading.
Discussion
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How it resolves
Resolved by whoever created the market, at their discretion per the question's description. It's play-money (Mana) and not tied to an official source — treat it as a community forecast.
Resolution criteria
In the event of ambiguity, I will be the arbiter. Questions resolve N/A if the event doesn’t occur. A resignation preceding an imminent conviction counts as YES for the purposes of the question.
ⓘ A market settles under its own written rules, which can lag what looks decided in the news — so the price may not move to 100% the moment an outcome seems obvious.
View the official rules on Manifold ↗Related markets
Will Trump announce he is running for President in the 2028 election?
Yes ≈ 50% chance