2026 FIFA World Cup Mega-Market: Group Stage
💡 What the odds say
Most likely: Mexico beats South Africa ⚽ June 11 (3pm) FOX at about a 100% chance — almost certain.
Prediction-market odds are usually well-calibrated — historically, outcomes priced near 70% happen about 70% of the time — but the crowd can still be wrong, and the price can lag the news.
Summary
This prediction market aggregates over a dozen binary outcomes for the 2026 FIFA World Cup group stage, with each contract currently priced at 100% (implying near-certainty) for a specific match result. The leading outcomes all indicate strong favorites: Mexico to beat South Africa, South Korea to beat Czechia, USA to beat Paraguay, Australia to beat Türkiye, Germany to beat Curaçao, and Ivory Coast to beat Ecuador. While these prices suggest overwhelming market confidence, they may also reflect limited liquidity or wagers placed at maximum odds, and should not be interpreted as guaranteed outcomes.
How it resolves
Resolved by whoever created the market, at their discretion per the question's description. It's play-money (Mana) and not tied to an official source — treat it as a community forecast.
Resolution criteria
Group Stage Matches Yes: Team A wins / No: Team B wins / No: Tie (Draw)
ⓘ A market settles under its own written rules, which can lag what looks decided in the news — so the price may not move to 100% the moment an outcome seems obvious.
View the official rules on Manifold ↗Data from Manifold’s public API, for informational purposes only. PredictionHub is not affiliated with any platform and does not facilitate trading.