How many days of bad (>150 AQI) air will SF suffer in 2026?
💡 What the odds say
Most likely: 0 at about a 60% chance — more likely than not.
Data from Manifold’s public API, for informational purposes only. PredictPal is not affiliated with any platform and does not facilitate trading.
Discussion
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How it resolves
Resolved by whoever created the market, at their discretion per the question's description. It's play-money (Mana) and not tied to an official source — treat it as a community forecast.
Resolution criteria
This will resolve according to EPA AirNow data for San Francisco for 1/1/2026 through 12/31/2026 inclusive. Update 2026-03-19 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - Based on daily average AQI (not daily peak) Will resolve using data available immediately at end of 2026 (not finalized AQS data from mid-2027) Based on San Francisco County numbers (not the SF-Oakland-Berkeley CBSA)
ⓘ A market settles under its own written rules, which can lag what looks decided in the news — so the price may not move to 100% the moment an outcome seems obvious.
View the official rules on Manifold ↗Related markets
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