Will the Mountain Hare, a.k.a. Snow Hare (Lepus timidus) become extinct in the current century?
💡 What the odds say
The market puts this at about a 14% chance — very unlikely.
No money — just record your call and see if you were right. Yes is at 14% right now.
The market heavily favors survival, but the real story is that localized threats from climate change and hunting are being weighed against the species' broad range and active conservation efforts, with no clear recent catalyst for a shift.
📊 Base rate: Among mammal species, the historical extinction rate over a century is less than 1%, and the mountain hare is currently listed as Least Concern by the IUCN, making a 14% Yes probability appear elevated relative to that baseline.
What's driving it
- • A 2026 article highlights ongoing public involvement in monitoring mountain hares in the Scottish Highlands, suggesting active conservation efforts (Ross-shire Journal, Apr 2026).
- • A separate 2026 report from Switzerland explicitly links climate crisis and gunshot as threats, indicating that while risks exist, they are region-specific and not global (Wild beim Wild, Apr 2026).
- • A 2023 National Geographic feature explains that the hare's snow camouflage becomes a liability with reduced snow cover, but this long-known vulnerability has not triggered a major population crash (National Geographic, Feb 2023).
The case for YES
- • Climate change is reducing snow cover duration across the hare's range, making them more visible to predators and disrupting their primary defense (National Geographic, 2023).
- • Hunting pressure in countries like Switzerland, combined with habitat fragmentation, could push local populations to extinction, and if these pressures intensify globally, total extinction is possible (Wild beim Wild, 2026).
- • The species has a narrow ecological niche tied to snow, and rapid warming could outpace its ability to adapt or shift range.
The case for NO
- • The mountain hare has a vast circumpolar distribution across northern Europe and Asia, making simultaneous global extinction highly unlikely.
- • Active conservation monitoring, such as the Highland hare search in Scotland, indicates that populations are being tracked and managed (Ross-shire Journal, 2026).
- • The species is currently listed as Least Concern by the IUCN, and no headline suggests a recent drastic decline that would warrant extinction within the century.
What to watch
- • 2027-01-01: Next IUCN Red List assessment for Lepus timidus; if uplisted to Vulnerable or Endangered, Yes odds would increase; if status unchanged, No odds would strengthen.
- • 2026-12-31: Annual population survey results from the Scottish Highlands; stable or increasing numbers would push odds toward No, while a sharp decline would boost Yes.
- • No specific future event is mentioned in the provided headlines; the above are inferred from typical conservation cycles.
AI-generated · grounded in recent news + odds · informational only, not advice. Verify on the source platform.
Data from Manifold’s public API, for informational purposes only. PredictPal is not affiliated with any platform and does not facilitate trading.
Discussion
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How it resolves
Resolved by whoever created the market, at their discretion per the question's description. It's play-money (Mana) and not tied to an official source — treat it as a community forecast.
ⓘ A market settles under its own written rules, which can lag what looks decided in the news — so the price may not move to 100% the moment an outcome seems obvious.
View the official rules on Manifold ↗Related markets
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