Will the METR 50% Time Horizon be "ambiguous" at the end of 2026?
💡 What the odds say
The market puts this at about a 72% chance — likely.
No money — just record your call and see if you were right. Yes is at 72% right now.
Data from Manifold’s public API, for informational purposes only. PredictPal is not affiliated with any platform and does not facilitate trading.
Discussion
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How it resolves
Resolved by whoever created the market, at their discretion per the question's description. It's play-money (Mana) and not tied to an official source — treat it as a community forecast.
ⓘ A market settles under its own written rules, which can lag what looks decided in the news — so the price may not move to 100% the moment an outcome seems obvious.
View the official rules on Manifold ↗Related markets
BNB Up or Down - Daily
The market's 70% odds for BNB rising today are not obviously supported by any of the provided recent headlines, which predominantly cover Airbnb regulatory news and a single crypto-related price drop from five months ago.
Yes ≈ 81% chance
DOGE Up or Down - Daily
Despite a cascade of bearish headlines—including a 25% weekly plunge in early June and a down close on July 11—the market now assigns an 80% probability to DOGE closing up on the daily resolution, suggesting traders are betting on a sharp reversal or a catalyst not captured in the provided news.
Yes ≈ 91% chance
Polymarket or Kalshi?
This market is a pure sentiment gauge with no resolution, so the 72% Polymarket lead reflects a persistent narrative advantage from its on-chain identity and aggressive bonus campaigns, but Kalshi's recent $500 referral push and a Washington Post controversy show it can still capture attention and shift the conversation.
2 outcomes
Will over 100,000 people be conceived with the help of advanced embryo selection techniques by 2030?
The market sees advanced embryo selection as still niche and ethically fraught, but recent coverage of genetic optimization startups and IVF's expanding role in family planning suggests the technology is gaining momentum, making the 100,000-conception threshold plausible if regulatory and adoption barriers fall.
Yes ≈ 26% chance