By when will most 50k+ FTX bankruptcy claimants have received their last installment ?

What's driving it

• • The 2026-07-21 update narrowed the resolution criterion to focus on when the last reimbursement is issued to the majority of claims over $50,000, making the target more manageable and pushing odds toward early 2027 (creator comment, Jul 21).
• • The 2025-09-30 news that FTX confirmed a $1.6B payout with large claims recovering 83.9% suggests substantial progress, but the indication that large claims lag behind small claims (120% recovered) implies higher-value distributions are still underway (Coinfomania, Sep 30).
• • The 2024-12-16 announcement that FTX plans to begin repaying customers in early 2025 sets a baseline start, but the 78% odds for before Jan 2027 imply that completing the process will take nearly two years from the first payments (Investopedia, Dec 16).

What to watch

• • If FTX issues a formal schedule or milestones for large-claim distributions before late 2026, that could solidify the early 2027 timeline or push it earlier; any announcement after mid-2026 of delays due to litigation would shift odds toward later years.
• • A court ruling in 2026 clarifying the final payment plan or resolving outstanding disputes (e.g., related to international claims) would reduce uncertainty; a ruling that speeds up distributions would boost earlier candidates, while a ruling creating delays would weaken the 78% favorite.
• • Quarterly payout reports from FTX in 2026 showing the percentage of $50k+ claims paid will directly inform the market; if by mid-2026 the majority are still unpaid, the before Jan 2027 odds could drop significantly.