Which of these famous people will reach lifetime two or more offspring by mid 2035?
💡 What the odds say
Most likely: Rihanna at about a 100% chance — almost certain.
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Discussion
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How it resolves
Resolved by whoever created the market, at their discretion per the question's description. It's play-money (Mana) and not tied to an official source — treat it as a community forecast.
Resolution criteria
Judgeable when the second child is born or when the person passes away (given that we know they don't have any more planned or possible). Also can YES if new information about the past is revealed. Wishing everyone a big, happy and healthy family. Of course adopted children count; adopting a child and helping him or her have a good upbringing is one of the best things you can do. Stepchildren for our purposes don't, though, since the question is about whether these people will cause a new parent+child relationship to exist for a kid who didn't have one before. Since stepchildren always will have had the person the stepparent is marrying, they wouldn't. I realize this isn't perfect, if someone married someone with adopted children it's not clear. To the best I can I'll try. If you think you've found a weird situation please let me know and I'll try to help and not trade against you. Judging: for bands, we consider the membership at the point of market creation End date: mid 2035
ⓘ A market settles under its own written rules, which can lag what looks decided in the news — so the price may not move to 100% the moment an outcome seems obvious.
View the official rules on Manifold ↗Related markets
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