Who will run for the Democratic presidential nomination in 2028?
💡 What the odds say
Most likely: Gavin Newsom at about a 91% chance — very likely.
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Discussion
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How it resolves
Resolved by whoever created the market, at their discretion per the question's description. It's play-money (Mana) and not tied to an official source — treat it as a community forecast.
Resolution criteria
This market uses the new Unlinked Multiple Choice format. The probabilites of each answer are independent of the other answers. Individual answers can resolve early, while the market as a whole remains open. Any person who appears in Wikipedia's "major candidates" section, at any time, for the 2028 Democratic Party presidential primaries will resolve YES. The criteria here are: The candidates in this section have declared their candidacies and meet one or more of the following criteria: campaign has received substantial major media coverage; current or previous holder of significant elected office (president, vice president, governor, U.S. senator, U.S. representative); have been included in at least five national polls. If Wikipedia changes the structure of the page for the 2028 primaries, I will fall back to the criteria "any declared candidate with a wikipedia page". When the primaries have concluded, all other options will resolve NO. See also: @/DanMan314/who-will-run-for-the-republican-pre
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