Next James Bond movie (#26) [Mega Independent] / Prop bets:
💡 What the odds say
Most likely: Gunplay at about a 98% chance — almost certain.
Data from Manifold’s public API, for informational purposes only. PredictPal is not affiliated with any platform and does not facilitate trading.
Discussion
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How it resolves
Resolved by whoever created the market, at their discretion per the question's description. It's play-money (Mana) and not tied to an official source — treat it as a community forecast.
Resolution criteria
Edit: This question now has several sister questions for all of you sickos who can't get enough of transport, sex, and action. I'll periodically N/A answers in those categories arbitrarily, to make room for things that don't fit into those other questions. [markets] Each question resolves as soon as there's proof (e.g. confirmed actor, title, ...), as long as it's not something that would change. I commit to only betting on questions I feel confident can resolve unambiguously. Refers to the next official Bond movie after No Time to Die (2021), I'll change the title once we know what it is. Needs to be in the actual movie, while unlikely I assume some things might be part of a trailer but then not make final cut.
ⓘ A market settles under its own written rules, which can lag what looks decided in the news — so the price may not move to 100% the moment an outcome seems obvious.
View the official rules on Manifold ↗Related markets
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Highest box office-grossing movie in 2026 (US/Canada Domestic)
Despite The Odyssey's record-breaking $84M+ second weekend (Deadline, Jul 25), the market overwhelmingly favors Spider-Man: Brand New Day at 67%, suggesting a belief that franchise familiarity and pre-release hype will outweigh current box office surprises.
7 outcomes
Spider-Man: Brand New Day Tomatometer 92%+ on July 31, 2026.
The market expects Spider-Man: Brand New Day to fall short of a 92% Tomatometer score, with the 'Below 92%' option commanding 69% despite recent positive buzz from cast interviews suggesting a strong fan reception; the single biggest recent shift is a 1-point drop in the Yes (≥92%) probability over 24 hours, potentially reflecting skepticism after mixed reviews for other Marvel projects like 'The Punisher: One Last Kill' (Rotten Tomatoes, May 12).
2 outcomes