Will Guillaume Verdon/BasedBeffJezos win a Darwin award by EOY 2040?

10¢Yes

Price history builds as this market trades.

No price history yet

Yes

10¢

91¢

💡 What the odds say

The market puts this at about a 10% chance — very unlikely.

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No money — just record your call and see if you were right. Yes is at 10% right now.

StatusOpen

ClosesJan 1, 2041 · 14y

Total volumeⱮ177

Liquidity

Data from Manifold’s public API, for informational purposes only. PredictPal is not affiliated with any platform and does not facilitate trading.

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How it resolves

Creator-resolvedSettled by the market's creator

Resolved by whoever created the market, at their discretion per the question's description. It's play-money (Mana) and not tied to an official source — treat it as a community forecast.

Closes Jan 1, 2041 (14y)

ⓘ A market settles under its own written rules, which can lag what looks decided in the news — so the price may not move to 100% the moment an outcome seems obvious.

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