Who will be TIME Magazine's 2026 Person of the Year?
💡 What the odds say
Most likely: Other at about a 37% chance.
The field is highly fragmented with 'Other' at 37%, indicating no dominant figure has emerged; the biggest recent shift is Zohran Mamdani rising to 14% after leading an early TIME poll (Hindustan Times, Jul 25).
What's driving it
- • Zohran Mamdani's surge to 14% is directly tied to his lead in TIME's early online poll, which historically can shape the final selection (Hindustan Times, Jul 25).
- • Donald Trump and/or JD Vance at 12% is supported by Trump's inclusion in TIME's 100 Most Influential People list (Time Magazine, Apr 15), reinforcing his ongoing political relevance.
- • Pope Leo XIV (Robert Prevost) at 12% likely reflects his recent election as pope and global moral authority, though no recent headline directly addresses this.
Why the front-runners lead
- • Zohran Mamdani leads the early TIME online poll, a traditional bellwether that often correlates with the final choice (Hindustan Times, Jul 25).
- • Trump/Vance command a loyal political base and constant media coverage, keeping them in contention despite polarizing views.
- • Pope Leo XIV's 12% odds benefit from the historical pattern of religious leaders being selected (e.g., Pope Francis in 2013) and his fresh papacy.
Why it's still open
- • The 'Other' category at 37% shows the race is wide open, with many unspecified candidates who could emerge from a major event or trend.
- • Elon Musk (7%) and Artificial Intelligence (7%) could overtake if a breakthrough AI regulation or space milestone occurs, but lack a single recent catalyst.
- • The Artemis II crew (2%) or Dario Amodei (2%) are long shots but could surge if their respective missions or AI safety work dominate headlines in late 2026.
What to watch
- • The Artemis II crew's launch (expected late 2026) could boost their odds if successful, as a historic moon mission would be a strong narrative for Person of the Year.
- • A major AI regulation bill or a high-profile AI incident could elevate 'Artificial Intelligence Itself' or Dario Amodei, shifting odds upward.
- • The release of TIME's official shortlist in December 2026 will consolidate the field, likely reducing 'Other' and clarifying the front-runners.
AI-generated · grounded in recent news + odds · informational only, not advice. Verify on the source platform.
Data from Manifold’s public API, for informational purposes only. PredictPal is not affiliated with any platform and does not facilitate trading.
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How it resolves
Resolved by whoever created the market, at their discretion per the question's description. It's play-money (Mana) and not tied to an official source — treat it as a community forecast.
Resolution criteria
This question resolves to the TIME 2026 Person of the Year. It uses consolidated answers to avoid having to predict who the major party nominees will be, or the exact wording of any abstract/group answers. If you would like to add a new candidate or consolidated answer to the market, submit it in a comment below. If a comment gets enough support, I'll open the market to submissions so that you can add it, and you'll get a bonus. Note that all consolidated answers must be mutually exclusive, so no more specific or general versions of existing options. The goal is to cleanly divide the probabilistic landscape into non-overlapping categories. If multiple options do end up being true, then those options will resolve to an even split of 100%. @Joshua credit for market idea. there will be no ai clarifications added to this market's description if you have a question, just ask in the comments :) !!!
ⓘ A market settles under its own written rules, which can lag what looks decided in the news — so the price may not move to 100% the moment an outcome seems obvious.
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