Will Israel be a 'full' or 'flawed democracy' according to the Democracy Index in 2030?
💡 What the odds say
The market puts this at about a 89% chance — very likely.
No money — just record your call and see if you were right. Yes is at 89% right now.
Data from Manifold’s public API, for informational purposes only. PredictPal is not affiliated with any platform and does not facilitate trading.
Discussion
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How it resolves
Resolved by whoever created the market, at their discretion per the question's description. It's play-money (Mana) and not tied to an official source — treat it as a community forecast.
ⓘ A market settles under its own written rules, which can lag what looks decided in the news — so the price may not move to 100% the moment an outcome seems obvious.
View the official rules on Manifold ↗Related markets
BNB Up or Down - Daily
The market's 70% odds for BNB rising today are not obviously supported by any of the provided recent headlines, which predominantly cover Airbnb regulatory news and a single crypto-related price drop from five months ago.
Yes ≈ 85% chance
DOGE Up or Down - Daily
Despite a cascade of bearish headlines—including a 25% weekly plunge in early June and a down close on July 11—the market now assigns an 80% probability to DOGE closing up on the daily resolution, suggesting traders are betting on a sharp reversal or a catalyst not captured in the provided news.
Yes ≈ 95% chance
Polymarket or Kalshi?
This market is a pure sentiment gauge with no resolution, so the 72% Polymarket lead reflects a persistent narrative advantage from its on-chain identity and aggressive bonus campaigns, but Kalshi's recent $500 referral push and a Washington Post controversy show it can still capture attention and shift the conversation.
2 outcomes