Will my resolution of the COVID-19 lab leak market be controversial?
36¢Yes
Price history builds as this market trades.
No price history yet
Yes
36¢
No
64¢
💡 What the odds say
The market puts this at about a 36% chance — less likely than not.
No money — just record your call and see if you were right. Yes is at 36% right now.
StatusOpen
ClosesJan 1, 2100 · —
Total volumeⱮ39.8K
Liquidity
Data from Manifold’s public API, for informational purposes only. PredictPal is not affiliated with any platform and does not facilitate trading.
Discussion
optional stance
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How it resolves
Creator-resolvedSettled by the market's creator
Resolved by whoever created the market, at their discretion per the question's description. It's play-money (Mana) and not tied to an official source — treat it as a community forecast.
Closes Jan 1, 2100 (—)
ⓘ A market settles under its own written rules, which can lag what looks decided in the news — so the price may not move to 100% the moment an outcome seems obvious.
View the official rules on Manifold ↗