Will most digital entertainment be Al generated by 2045?
💡 What the odds say
The market puts this at about a 64% chance — more likely than not.
No money — just record your call and see if you were right. Yes is at 64% right now.
Data from Manifold’s public API, for informational purposes only. PredictPal is not affiliated with any platform and does not facilitate trading.
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How it resolves
Resolved by whoever created the market, at their discretion per the question's description. It's play-money (Mana) and not tied to an official source — treat it as a community forecast.
ⓘ A market settles under its own written rules, which can lag what looks decided in the news — so the price may not move to 100% the moment an outcome seems obvious.
View the official rules on Manifold ↗Related markets
Are people in the US getting dumber?
The 70% odds that Americans are getting dumber reflect a media-driven narrative linking AI tool use to cognitive decline, but the evidence is mostly anecdotal and lacks rigorous longitudinal data, making the market more a bet on cultural perception than on measurable intelligence.
Yes ≈ 70% chance
Highest box office-grossing movie in 2026 (US/Canada Domestic)
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7 outcomes
Will the documentary, "Instadocs: The prediction market games" be available on Netflix in July?
Yes ≈ 93% chance
Spider-Man: Brand New Day Tomatometer 92%+ on July 31, 2026.
The market expects Spider-Man: Brand New Day to fall short of a 92% Tomatometer score, with the 'Below 92%' option commanding 69% despite recent positive buzz from cast interviews suggesting a strong fan reception; the single biggest recent shift is a 1-point drop in the Yes (≥92%) probability over 24 hours, potentially reflecting skepticism after mixed reviews for other Marvel projects like 'The Punisher: One Last Kill' (Rotten Tomatoes, May 12).
2 outcomes
How many consecutive weeks will "KPop Demon Hunters" stay in the Netflix Top 10?
The market is overwhelmingly concentrated on 'Other' at 99%, reflecting near-certainty that the show's record-breaking streak will end at some point beyond the current 11 weeks, with all specific week counts at 0% — a rare consensus that the exact duration is unpredictable despite the show's dominance.
34 outcomes