Will the price of WTI oil be above 80 on December 31, 2026 at 02:30 PM EST?
🗂 Part of event: WTI price at year end? →💡 What the odds say
The market puts this at about a 54% chance — a coin toss.
No money — just record your call and see if you were right. Yes is at 54% right now.
The 50/50 odds reflect a market split between the recent geopolitical surge from US-Iran strikes and the belief that the spike will fade before year-end, making the key question whether the conflict escalates or de-escalates by December.
What's driving it
- • US military strikes on Iran on July 8 pushed WTI above $76, reversing earlier declines and reviving supply disruption fears (WSJ, Jul 8; Al Jazeera, Jul 8).
- • WTI is holding above $74 as of July 9, with traders citing persistent Hormuz Strait risks and bearish hesitation (FXStreet, Jul 9; Bitcoin World, Jul 9).
- • The 50% probability indicates that the market sees the current rally as unsupported by fundamental demand, with OPEC+ spare capacity and easing global economic fears still weighing (TradingPedia, Jul 8).
The case for YES
- • If US-Iran hostilities escalate further, especially a blockade or attack on tankers in the Strait of Hormuz, supply disruptions could push WTI well above $80 by year-end.
- • OPEC+ may struggle to raise output quickly enough to offset a sustained Iranian supply loss, tightening the physical market and supporting prices above $80.
- • A weaker US dollar or a rebound in global industrial demand in the second half of 2026 could add upward pressure, pushing WTI above the $80 threshold.
The case for NO
- • If the US and Iran quickly de-escalate or enter ceasefire talks, the geopolitical risk premium could evaporate, returning WTI to pre-crisis levels below $70.
- • OPEC+ has stated it will increase supply if needed, and the US could release additional Strategic Petroleum Reserve barrels, capping any price spike.
- • Global oil demand growth is slowing amid high interest rates and a potential economic slowdown, which would keep WTI below $80 even without a supply shock.
What to watch
- • Any official US-Iran ceasefire or negotiation announcement (negative for oil, likely to push WTI below $74).
- • Next US weekly EIA crude inventory report (if draws accelerate, positive; if builds, negative).
- • OPEC+ monthly production data or an emergency meeting (if output increases, negative; if cuts extended, positive).
AI-generated · grounded in recent news + odds · informational only, not advice. Verify on the source platform.
Data from Kalshi’s public API, for informational purposes only. PredictPal is not affiliated with any platform and does not facilitate trading.
Discussion
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How it resolves
Settled by Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated US exchange, against the official source named in each contract (e.g. a government release or election certification), with an Outcome Review Committee as a backstop for disputes.
Resolution criteria
If the settlement price of WTI Crude Oil on December 31, 2026 at 02:30 PM EST is above 80 USD/Bbl, then the market resolves to Yes.
ⓘ A market settles under its own written rules, which can lag what looks decided in the news — so the price may not move to 100% the moment an outcome seems obvious.
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