Will the price of WTI oil be above 115 on December 31, 2026 at 02:30 PM EST?
🗂 Part of event: WTI price at year end? →💡 What the odds say
The market puts this at about a 21% chance — unlikely.
No money — just record your call and see if you were right. Yes is at 21% right now.
Despite US-Iran military conflict reigniting and pushing oil above $78 in July 2026, the chance of WTI exceeding $115 by year-end remains low at 21% because achieving that level requires a near-doubling from current prices, and history shows no year-end settlement has ever reached that threshold.
📊 Base rate: No year-end settlement price of WTI crude oil has ever exceeded $115 since the contract's inception in 1983, giving a historical base rate of roughly 0% for this exact resolution condition.
What's driving it
- • US strikes on Iran on July 8-9, 2026 (WSJ, Jul 8; Al Jazeera, Jul 8) triggered a sharp oil price surge, raising the geopolitical risk premium and increasing the odds of Yes from a lower level.
- • Despite the surge, WTI remains around $78 (Fortune India, Jul 9), far from the $115 target, keeping the No probability dominant.
- • The conflict's potential to disrupt Hormuz strait (Fortune India, Jul 9) is a key upside risk, but so far no actual disruption has occurred, limiting price gains.
The case for YES
- • If US-Iran hostilities escalate into a sustained blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, through which about 20% of global oil passes, supply losses could drive prices above $115.
- • A coordinated OPEC+ production cut, combined with the conflict, could amplify the supply squeeze and push prices well above current forecasts.
- • Historical precedent from the 1990 Gulf War and 2003 Iraq invasion shows oil can spike 100%+ in months during major Middle East conflicts, making $115 achievable from $78.
The case for NO
- • Current WTI price near $78 requires a ~48% increase to hit $115, but the recent rally has already stalled (Bitcoin World, Jul 9 shows WTI holding above $74, not accelerating), suggesting limited momentum.
- • Global economic slowdown fears, including weaker Chinese demand and potential recession, could cap oil prices even with supply disruptions.
- • The US has strategic petroleum reserves and can increase domestic production, which historically has tempered extreme price spikes.
What to watch
- • No specific upcoming events are cited in the provided headlines, but any announcement of US-Iran ceasefire talks (exact date unknown) would lower odds of Yes.
- • Any new Iranian retaliation or further US military strikes, if they occur in coming months, would sharply increase odds of Yes.
AI-generated · grounded in recent news + odds · informational only, not advice. Verify on the source platform.
Data from Kalshi’s public API, for informational purposes only. PredictPal is not affiliated with any platform and does not facilitate trading.
Discussion
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How it resolves
Settled by Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated US exchange, against the official source named in each contract (e.g. a government release or election certification), with an Outcome Review Committee as a backstop for disputes.
Resolution criteria
If the settlement price of WTI Crude Oil on December 31, 2026 at 02:30 PM EST is above 115 USD/Bbl, then the market resolves to Yes.
ⓘ A market settles under its own written rules, which can lag what looks decided in the news — so the price may not move to 100% the moment an outcome seems obvious.
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